PnL (30d)

−$77

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$55

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-3.5%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

41%

17W / 24L · 58 open

Win Return (30d)

42%

41W / 56L · 2 open

Trades (30d)

99

across 32 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$6.41

avg win $7 · loss $16

Profit Factor

0.31

$35 won / $112 lost

Reward / Risk

0.44

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$43

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	52.8% 94W/84L	114	$23,365
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/3L	11	$670
💵 Economy	—	1	$98
🎬 Culture	—	1	$5

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

22 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	610	0.880	$536.47	$37.17	+7.4%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	357	0.830	$296.34	$64.34	+27.7%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	220	0.910	$199.97	$45.96	+29.8%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	202	0.815	$164.62	$14.61	+9.7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	150	0.825	$123.97	$0.75	+0.6%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	Yes	133	0.890	$118.67	$18.67	+18.7%
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	122	0.905	$110.48	$10.48	+10.5%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	150	0.735	$110.42	$20.41	+22.7%
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Yes	437	0.235	$102.65	$-6.35	-5.8%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	Yes	66	0.855	$56.17	$0.33	+0.6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?	No	70	0.760	$53.52	$3.52	+7.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	167	0.305	$50.83	$2.83	+5.9%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	37	0.715	$26.36	$-0.18	-0.7%
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	24	0.505	$12.02	$-2.98	-19.8%
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?	Yes	100	0.110	$11.00	$1.00	+10.0%
Will Russia enter Hannivka by September 30, 2026?	No	25	0.435	$10.88	$0.88	+8.8%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	143	0.070	$9.93	$-0.07	-0.7%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?	No	17	0.440	$7.59	$2.59	+51.7%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31	Yes	36	0.190	$6.82	$-3.18	-31.8%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	11	0.426	$4.88	$-0.12	-2.4%
Will Péter Magyar be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Yes	103	0.045	$4.63	$-22.37	-82.8%
Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?	Yes	67	0.044	$2.93	$-7.07	-70.7%