PnL (30d)

−$398

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$19

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-6.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

46%

220W / 255L · 59 open

Win Return (30d)

48%

245W / 266L · 23 open

Trades (30d)

534

across 90 markets · ~6 per market

EV / position

−$5.24

avg win $23 · loss $24

Profit Factor

0.64

$700 won / $1,098 lost

Reward / Risk

0.98

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$122

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	38.1% 447W/726L	230	$24,915
🏛 Politics	50.8% 63W/61L	30	$2,787
🎬 Culture	47.7% 52W/57L	26	$2,073
💵 Economy	100.0% 11W/0L	2	$480

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

10 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	767	0.175	$134.29	$26.86	+25.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	77	0.165	$12.71	$-1.15	-8.3%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	30	0.210	$6.32	$-0.30	-4.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	200	0.032	$6.30	$-4.70	-42.7%
Will Leavitt say "Hormuz" or "Strait" during the next White House Press Briefing?	Yes	5	0.470	$2.38	$-1.06	-30.9%
Stripe vs American Express - higher valuation on December 31?	Stripe	21	0.110	$2.36	$-0.86	-26.7%
Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	34	0.050	$1.72	$-5.99	-77.6%
Will Leavitt say "World Cup" during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	1	0.820	$0.82	$0.06	+7.9%
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?	Yes	1	0.220	$0.32	$-0.13	-29.0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	10	0.006	$0.06	$-0.84	-93.3%