PnL (30d)

+$141

Economy · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$34

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+18.3%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

85%

23W / 4L · 29 open

Win Return (30d)

73%

41W / 15L

Trades (30d)

56

across 13 markets · ~4 per market

EV / position

+$35.17

avg win $50 · loss $11

Profit Factor

14.03

$151 won / $11 lost

Reward / Risk

4.68

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	38.1% 447W/726L	230	$24,915
🏛 Politics	74.0% 37W/13L	17	$1,490
🎬 Culture	76.3% 29W/9L	14	$991
💵 Economy	100.0% 8W/0L	1	$274

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

10 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	767	0.175	$134.29	$26.86	+25.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	77	0.165	$12.71	$-1.15	-8.3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	200	0.033	$6.60	$-4.40	-40.0%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Yes	30	0.210	$6.32	$-0.30	-4.5%
Will Leavitt say "Hormuz" or "Strait" during the next White House Press Briefing?	Yes	5	0.485	$2.45	$-0.99	-28.7%
Stripe vs American Express - higher valuation on December 31?	Stripe	21	0.110	$2.36	$-0.86	-26.7%
Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	34	0.050	$1.72	$-5.99	-77.6%
Will Leavitt say "World Cup" during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	1	0.835	$0.83	$0.07	+9.9%
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?	Yes	1	0.220	$0.32	$-0.13	-29.0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	10	0.006	$0.06	$-0.84	-93.3%