| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
7,292 |
0.715 |
$5,213.44 |
$776.23 |
+17.5% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
5,254 |
0.675 |
$3,546.70 |
$406.71 |
+13.0% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
3,736 |
0.945 |
$3,530.51 |
$315.80 |
+9.8% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
3,705 |
0.565 |
$2,092.95 |
$383.01 |
+22.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
2,564 |
0.765 |
$1,961.52 |
$-17.18 |
-0.9% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
No |
1,619 |
0.890 |
$1,441.02 |
$64.76 |
+4.7% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
2,627 |
0.457 |
$1,200.53 |
$544.83 |
+83.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
988 |
0.945 |
$933.57 |
$4.94 |
+0.5% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
3,693 |
0.238 |
$880.74 |
$252.36 |
+40.2% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
2,718 |
0.277 |
$751.65 |
$-61.69 |
-7.6% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
2,185 |
0.315 |
$688.16 |
$-533.03 |
-43.6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
4,000 |
0.165 |
$660.00 |
$140.00 |
+26.9% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? |
No |
705 |
0.870 |
$613.04 |
$29.90 |
+5.1% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? |
No |
654 |
0.910 |
$594.98 |
$6.68 |
+1.1% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
770 |
0.685 |
$527.33 |
$-21.78 |
-4.0% |
| Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? |
No |
731 |
0.670 |
$490.10 |
$-6.68 |
-1.3% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
3,976 |
0.115 |
$457.21 |
$-0.84 |
-0.2% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.225 |
$450.00 |
$-129.72 |
-22.4% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.165 |
$330.00 |
$-50.00 |
-13.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
364 |
0.895 |
$326.14 |
$130.76 |
+66.9% |
| Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? |
No |
406 |
0.685 |
$278.12 |
$95.41 |
+52.2% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,060 |
0.250 |
$265.03 |
$-148.42 |
-35.9% |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? |
Yes |
256 |
0.650 |
$166.32 |
$82.01 |
+97.3% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? |
No |
2,000 |
0.047 |
$94.00 |
$12.00 |
+14.6% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.435 |
$87.00 |
$-15.00 |
-14.7% |