| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
7,292 |
0.715 |
$5,213.44 |
$776.23 |
+17.5% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
5,254 |
0.675 |
$3,546.70 |
$406.71 |
+13.0% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
3,736 |
0.940 |
$3,511.83 |
$297.12 |
+9.2% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
3,705 |
0.560 |
$2,074.79 |
$364.86 |
+21.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
2,564 |
0.770 |
$1,974.34 |
$-4.36 |
-0.2% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
No |
1,619 |
0.885 |
$1,432.92 |
$56.67 |
+4.1% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
Yes |
2,627 |
0.463 |
$1,216.29 |
$560.59 |
+85.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
988 |
0.945 |
$933.57 |
$4.94 |
+0.5% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
3,693 |
0.234 |
$864.12 |
$235.74 |
+37.5% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
2,718 |
0.278 |
$754.37 |
$-58.97 |
-7.3% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
2,185 |
0.310 |
$677.24 |
$-543.96 |
-44.5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Yes |
4,000 |
0.165 |
$660.00 |
$140.00 |
+26.9% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? |
No |
705 |
0.870 |
$613.04 |
$29.90 |
+5.1% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? |
No |
654 |
0.910 |
$594.98 |
$6.68 |
+1.1% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
770 |
0.690 |
$531.10 |
$-18.01 |
-3.3% |
| Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? |
No |
731 |
0.665 |
$486.44 |
$-10.34 |
-2.1% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
3,976 |
0.115 |
$457.21 |
$-0.84 |
-0.2% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.225 |
$450.00 |
$-129.72 |
-22.4% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.165 |
$330.00 |
$-50.00 |
-13.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
364 |
0.900 |
$327.96 |
$132.58 |
+67.9% |
| Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? |
No |
406 |
0.685 |
$278.12 |
$95.41 |
+52.2% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,060 |
0.250 |
$265.03 |
$-148.42 |
-35.9% |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? |
Yes |
256 |
0.645 |
$165.04 |
$80.73 |
+95.8% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? |
No |
2,000 |
0.048 |
$95.00 |
$13.00 |
+15.9% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
200 |
0.440 |
$88.00 |
$-14.00 |
-13.7% |