mx156
0x8a1e1e8fec1fb91f12ba3b8ebec52d2eda21bd03
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
+$39
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$396
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+2.9%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
55%
6W / 5L · 21 open
Win Return (30d)
19%
6W / 26L
Trades (30d)
32
across 9 markets · ~4 per market
EV / position
+$9.81
avg win $35 · loss $66
Profit Factor
1.60
$105 won / $66 lost
Reward / Risk
0.53
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $44,946 · all-time $1,500,833
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
7 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? |
Yes |
76,071 |
0.022 |
$1,673.57 |
$-700.24 |
-29.5% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
Yes |
15,854 |
0.065 |
$1,030.48 |
$-348.48 |
-25.3% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
Yes |
8,813 |
0.020 |
$176.26 |
$-205.72 |
-53.9% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
391 |
0.155 |
$60.61 |
$-29.39 |
-32.7% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
Yes |
1,196 |
0.028 |
$32.89 |
$-107.11 |
-76.5% |
| Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
273 |
0.095 |
$25.97 |
$-45.53 |
-63.7% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
Yes |
247 |
0.080 |
$19.73 |
$-30.27 |
-60.5% |