mx156
0x8a1e1e8fec1fb91f12ba3b8ebec52d2eda21bd03
PnL (30d)
−$234
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$1,713
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-5.3%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
33%
15W / 30L · 71 open
Win Return (30d)
16%
19W / 97L
Trades (30d)
116
across 34 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
−$10.64
avg win $28 · loss $37
Profit Factor
0.52
$252 won / $486 lost
Reward / Risk
0.75
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$32
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $41,262 · all-time $1,497,150
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
7 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? |
Yes |
70,305 |
0.015 |
$1,019.42 |
$-1,241.37 |
-54.9% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
Yes |
14,425 |
0.065 |
$937.63 |
$-341.34 |
-26.7% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
Yes |
8,813 |
0.019 |
$171.86 |
$-210.12 |
-55.0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
391 |
0.155 |
$60.61 |
$-29.39 |
-32.7% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
Yes |
1,196 |
0.031 |
$37.08 |
$-102.92 |
-73.5% |
| Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
273 |
0.100 |
$27.34 |
$-44.16 |
-61.8% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
Yes |
247 |
0.080 |
$19.73 |
$-30.27 |
-60.5% |