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Trader leaderboard/QuietRiskisWrong

QuietRiskisWrong

0x88c4919de76e526d55a32c1f8afb439dd1f1129a
Scoped to Economy — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$2,651
Economy · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$1,107
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-9.6%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
50%
6W / 6L · 18 open
Win Return (30d)
47%
14W / 16L
Trades (30d)
30
across 11 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
−$662.75
avg win $39 · loss $1,365
Profit Factor
0.03
$79 won / $2,730 lost
Reward / Risk
0.03
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $376,161 · all-time $11,884,653

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 94.4% 170W/10L 66 $507,934
🏛 Politics 100.0% 2W/0L 8 $39,129
₿ Crypto 5 $19,711
💵 Economy 5 $19,711
⚽ Sports 100.0% 19W/0L 1 $17,039

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

23 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 934,821 0.845 $789,923.64 $109,509.59 +16.1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 21,739 0.905 $19,673.36 $2,941.05 +17.6%
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? No 19,574 0.890 $17,420.72 $3,459.13 +24.8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August? No 14,693 0.962 $14,126.90 $831.53 +6.3%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? Yes 10,784 0.945 $10,190.96 $510.09 +5.3%
Israel closes its airspace by August 15? No 8,816 0.950 $8,375.26 $1,114.28 +15.3%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 8,775 0.925 $8,116.78 $1,101.81 +15.7%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? Yes 8,227 0.865 $7,116.68 $1,488.70 +26.5%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? Yes 3,616 0.998 $3,606.63 $223.48 +6.6%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No 3,702 0.870 $3,220.82 $281.83 +9.6%
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 3,000 0.993 $2,977.42 $258.02 +9.5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August? No 2,825 0.986 $2,784.04 $185.04 +7.1%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? No 2,206 0.969 $2,138.02 $166.01 +8.4%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 8,035 0.261 $2,093.10 $-9.89 -0.5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? No 2,130 0.925 $1,970.14 $117.15 +6.3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August? No 2,012 0.973 $1,956.52 $163.19 +9.1%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2,052 0.875 $1,795.27 $315.89 +21.4%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 1,587 0.853 $1,353.32 $10.33 +0.8%
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes 1,067 0.931 $993.94 $-6.06 -0.6%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? Yes 891 0.840 $748.69 $282.69 +60.7%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? Yes 618 0.905 $558.93 $26.93 +5.1%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? Yes 514 0.805 $413.83 $116.83 +39.3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August? No 182 0.988 $180.09 $10.09 +5.9%