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Trader leaderboard/QuietRiskisWrong

QuietRiskisWrong

0x88c4919de76e526d55a32c1f8afb439dd1f1129a
PnL (30d)
+$7,155
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$16,326
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+2.2%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
94%
170W / 10L · 176 open
Win Return (30d)
88%
312W / 44L
Trades (30d)
356
across 66 markets · ~5 per market
EV / position
+$198.76
avg win $300 · loss $912
Profit Factor
3.61
$9,892 won / $2,737 lost
Reward / Risk
0.33
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$104
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $346,037 · all-time $11,854,529

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 94.4% 170W/10L 66 $507,934
🏛 Politics 100.0% 2W/0L 8 $42,695
₿ Crypto 0.0% 0W/1L 6 $22,697
💵 Economy 0.0% 0W/1L 6 $22,697
⚽ Sports 100.0% 19W/0L 1 $17,039

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

23 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 916,262 0.835 $765,078.82 $100,344.44 +15.1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 21,739 0.900 $19,564.66 $2,832.35 +16.9%
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? No 19,574 0.895 $17,518.59 $3,557.00 +25.5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August? No 14,693 0.960 $14,097.52 $802.14 +6.0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? Yes 11,416 0.999 $11,398.55 $717.00 +6.7%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? Yes 8,784 0.945 $8,300.96 $520.08 +6.7%
Israel closes its airspace by August 15? No 8,816 0.930 $8,198.94 $937.96 +12.9%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 8,775 0.925 $8,116.78 $1,101.81 +15.7%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? Yes 6,462 0.855 $5,525.29 $1,415.31 +34.4%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No 3,702 0.850 $3,146.78 $207.79 +7.1%
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 3,000 0.993 $2,978.92 $259.52 +9.5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August? No 2,825 0.985 $2,782.62 $183.62 +7.1%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? No 2,206 0.966 $2,131.40 $159.39 +8.1%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 8,035 0.261 $2,093.10 $-9.89 -0.5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August? No 2,130 0.920 $1,959.49 $106.50 +5.7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August? No 2,012 0.972 $1,955.52 $162.18 +9.0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2,052 0.845 $1,733.71 $254.34 +17.2%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 1,587 0.852 $1,352.53 $9.53 +0.7%
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes 1,067 0.932 $995.00 $-4.99 -0.5%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? Yes 891 0.825 $735.32 $269.32 +57.8%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? Yes 618 0.900 $555.85 $23.85 +4.5%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? Yes 514 0.765 $393.26 $96.26 +32.4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August? No 182 0.985 $179.63 $9.64 +5.7%