PnL (30d)

−$4,621

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$25

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-5.6%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

39%

2,045W / 3,186L · 666 open

Win Return (30d)

41%

2,366W / 3,438L · 93 open

Trades (30d)

5,897

across 479 markets · ~12 per market

EV / position

−$11.16

avg win $65 · loss $58

Profit Factor

0.69

$10,230 won / $14,851 lost

Reward / Risk

1.12

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$579

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	39.1% 2,045W/3,186L	479	$143,969
⚽ Sports	50.0% 49W/49L	25	$2,748
🌤 Weather	59.6% 68W/46L	13	$1,195
💵 Economy	28.6% 8W/20L	8	$559
🏛 Politics	—	5	$1,345
₿ Crypto	28.6% 8W/20L	5	$333
🎬 Culture	0.0% 0W/10L	1	$22

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

72 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	1,249	0.715	$893.06	$677.94	+315.1%
Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat?	No	990	0.315	$311.89	$68.61	+28.2%
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	300	0.854	$255.74	$-32.20	-11.2%
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%?	No	324	0.565	$182.98	$8.07	+4.6%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	176	0.963	$169.22	$2.20	+1.3%
Will the Republican Party win the ID-01 House seat?	Yes	120	0.941	$113.25	$-1.02	-0.9%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	Yes	300	0.370	$110.94	$3.57	+3.3%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. LG Twins	NC Dinos	185	0.475	$87.71	$4.62	+5.6%
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	223	0.370	$82.51	$2.03	+2.5%
Will Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	150	0.485	$72.89	$7.22	+11.0%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	244	0.265	$64.64	$1.20	+1.9%
Will a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?	Yes	826	0.075	$61.97	$-37.18	-37.5%
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $10B by December 31?	Yes	112	0.505	$56.54	$20.92	+58.7%
Will Marcus Rashford stay at Manchester United?	Yes	80	0.644	$51.52	$7.44	+16.9%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Yes	75	0.625	$46.63	$2.14	+4.8%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	No	49	0.908	$44.73	$0.32	+0.7%
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?	Yes	300	0.115	$34.50	$10.50	+43.8%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	1,020	0.034	$34.16	$8.12	+31.2%
Will Joao Cancelo join Barcelona?	Yes	40	0.825	$32.98	$-0.60	-1.8%
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	No	47	0.630	$29.67	$-2.35	-7.4%
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	Yes	1,229	0.021	$26.29	$7.72	+41.6%
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	37	0.500	$18.65	$-5.97	-24.2%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	623	0.028	$17.15	$14.76	+617.8%
Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $75B and $100B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	209	0.080	$16.74	$6.76	+67.8%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	233	0.071	$16.62	$0.08	+0.5%