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cripes3

0x8454f39e7fa6957dfbf1ecc574820ada1c92331a
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$816
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$1,468
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+5.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
100%
11W / 0L · 4 open
Win Return (30d)
100%
15W / 0L
Trades (30d)
15
across 4 markets · ~4 per market
EV / position
+$408.04
avg win $408
Profit Factor
no losses yet
Reward / Risk
need wins & losses
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $16,238 · all-time $23,059,406

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 21.3% 37W/137L 64 $46,373
💵 Economy 6 $1,335
₿ Crypto 2 $400
🏛 Politics 1 $3,750

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

117 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 10,635 0.855 $9,093.31 $3,586.31 +65.1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 10,000 0.835 $8,350.01 $990.01 +13.5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 5,000 0.982 $4,907.50 $477.50 +10.8%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? No 5,000 0.895 $4,475.00 $1,915.00 +74.8%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No 7,453 0.540 $4,024.66 $-1,438.78 -26.3%
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? No 5,000 0.645 $3,224.99 $-64.98 -2.0%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31? No 3,482 0.895 $3,116.04 $-147.66 -4.5%
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? $60 3,500 0.792 $2,772.00 $-365.99 -11.7%
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? No 6,002 0.435 $2,610.87 $-2,250.75 -46.3%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 3,000 0.852 $2,556.00 $843.00 +49.2%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? No 3,411 0.645 $2,200.22 $-550.95 -20.0%
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No 1,898 0.880 $1,670.47 $436.60 +35.4%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 2,000 0.830 $1,660.02 $490.01 +41.9%
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? No 1,622 0.925 $1,500.66 $154.12 +11.4%
Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch No 1,500 0.936 $1,404.00 $9.00 +0.6%
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? No 1,500 0.910 $1,364.97 $30.00 +2.2%
Tread FDV above $200M one day after launch No 1,400 0.811 $1,136.10 $-137.90 -10.8%
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? No 924 0.994 $918.46 $419.50 +84.1%
Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day? No 1,000 0.845 $845.00 $-55.00 -6.1%
Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 1,144 0.690 $789.25 $-210.35 -21.0%
Will Mohamed Salah join Fenerbahce? No 700 0.996 $697.20 $165.20 +31.1%
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 800 0.870 $696.00 $-63.20 -8.3%
GMGN FDV above $200M one day after launch Yes 1,282 0.445 $570.69 $-243.13 -29.9%
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2027? No 940 0.460 $432.36 $-122.19 -22.0%
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANAI? No 400 0.993 $397.20 $25.20 +6.8%