PnL (30d)

−$152

Culture · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$5

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-7.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

45%

94W / 117L · 8 open

Win Return (30d)

46%

101W / 118L

Trades (30d)

219

across 62 markets · ~4 per market

EV / position

−$2.66

avg win $26 · loss $22

Profit Factor

0.80

$602 won / $754 lost

Reward / Risk

1.18

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$332

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	49.9% 380W/382L	199	$28,394
🏛 Politics	62.2% 51W/31L	26	$2,677
🎬 Culture	62.2% 51W/31L	26	$2,694
⚽ Sports	82.4% 28W/6L	12	$1,335
💵 Economy	80.0% 20W/5L	5	$861

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

11 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
UFC Fight Night: Louie Sutherland vs. José Montanha (Heavyweight, Prelims)	José Montanha	35	0.385	$13.48	$-0.18	-1.3%
Will Trump say "Gay" in August?	No	20	0.600	$11.99	$0.60	+5.3%
Will Trump say "Stock Market" during remarks in Las Vegas?	No	100	0.100	$10.00	$3.00	+42.9%
Will Trump say "Tax" 30+ times during remarks in Las Vegas?	No	20	0.405	$8.10	$7.50	+1250.0%
Will Trump say "No No No" in August?	No	48	0.105	$5.05	$-1.20	-19.2%
Will Gwendolyn Beck be confirmed to be the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein in 2026?	Yes	54	0.072	$3.89	$-19.91	-83.7%
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes	30	0.115	$3.45	$-1.35	-28.1%
Will Trump say "Central Casting" in August?	No	50	0.034	$1.70	$1.50	+750.0%
Will Trump say "Shit" in August?	No	3	0.100	$0.32	$0.22	+233.2%
Will Trump say "Midterm" in August?	No	100	0.000	$0.00	$-0.30	-100.0%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)	Joel Álvarez	20	0.000	$0.00	$-7.20	-100.0%