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Trader leaderboard/Niseko

Niseko

0x801dbe416065cfa8ecffeae526eeb37f393fd8e0
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$286
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$328
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-2.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
11%
1W / 8L · 67 open
Win Return (30d)
78%
59W / 17L
Trades (30d)
76
across 8 markets · ~10 per market
EV / position
−$57.15
avg win $20 · loss $76
Profit Factor
0.07
$20 won / $306 lost
Reward / Risk
0.26
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$248
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $29,050 · all-time $6,922,942

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 83.4% 1,774W/352L 136 $148,722
₿ Crypto 81.2% 78W/18L 8 $5,464
🎬 Culture 81.2% 78W/18L 8 $5,464
🌤 Weather 77.8% 35W/10L 5 $3,815
🏛 Politics 0.0% 0W/2L 3 $2,081
💵 Economy 0.0% 0W/2L 2 $1,916

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

20 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 59,500 0.625 $37,187.40 $-10,672.31 -22.3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Yes 23,780 0.295 $7,015.05 $-3,104.57 -30.7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 19,576 0.260 $5,089.68 $-3,929.80 -43.6%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 2,804 0.963 $2,700.25 $541.17 +25.1%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? No 2,000 0.964 $1,928.00 $212.20 +12.4%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes 2,000 0.958 $1,916.00 $276.00 +16.8%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? No 2,206 0.845 $1,863.69 $-31.69 -1.7%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? No 2,900 0.635 $1,842.66 $-535.13 -22.5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 18,145 0.095 $1,723.74 $-9,153.31 -84.2%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 4,000 0.345 $1,379.60 $-460.40 -25.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? Yes 8,300 0.165 $1,369.48 $-1,263.69 -48.0%
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? No 900 0.920 $827.95 $141.80 +20.7%
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? No 700 0.675 $472.50 $-52.50 -10.0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 5? No 334 1.000 $333.83 $31.25 +10.3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 5? No 317 1.000 $316.84 $119.07 +60.2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 5? Up 600 0.325 $195.00 $-99.00 -33.7%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? No 404 0.375 $151.50 $-208.06 -57.9%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 5? No 140 1.000 $139.93 $13.93 +11.1%
Ethereum Up or Down on August 5? Up 400 0.225 $90.00 $-106.00 -54.1%
Trump out as President before 2027? No 8 0.935 $7.89 $0.92 +13.3%