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Trader leaderboard/Niseko

Niseko

0x801dbe416065cfa8ecffeae526eeb37f393fd8e0
Scoped to Culture — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$4,007
Culture · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$165
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+49.9%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
75%
123W / 42L · 4 open
Win Return (30d)
75%
127W / 42L
Trades (30d)
169
across 21 markets · ~8 per market
EV / position
+$200.34
avg win $450 · loss $264
Profit Factor
3.17
$5,853 won / $1,846 lost
Reward / Risk
1.71
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$309
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $29,050 · all-time $6,922,942

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 83.4% 1,774W/352L 136 $148,722
₿ Crypto 81.2% 78W/18L 8 $5,464
🎬 Culture 81.2% 78W/18L 8 $5,464
🌤 Weather 77.8% 35W/10L 5 $3,815
🏛 Politics 0.0% 0W/2L 3 $2,081
💵 Economy 0.0% 0W/2L 2 $1,916

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

20 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 59,500 0.625 $37,187.40 $-10,672.31 -22.3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Yes 23,780 0.305 $7,252.85 $-2,866.78 -28.3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 19,576 0.265 $5,187.56 $-3,831.93 -42.5%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 2,804 0.963 $2,700.25 $541.17 +25.1%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? No 2,000 0.966 $1,932.00 $216.20 +12.6%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes 2,000 0.959 $1,917.00 $277.00 +16.9%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? No 2,206 0.845 $1,863.69 $-31.69 -1.7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 18,145 0.095 $1,723.74 $-9,153.31 -84.2%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? No 2,900 0.557 $1,616.75 $-761.04 -32.0%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 4,000 0.345 $1,379.60 $-460.40 -25.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? Yes 8,300 0.155 $1,286.48 $-1,346.69 -51.1%
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027? No 900 0.920 $827.95 $141.80 +20.7%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 5? Up 600 0.805 $482.99 $189.00 +64.3%
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? No 700 0.675 $472.50 $-52.50 -10.0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 5? No 334 1.000 $333.83 $31.25 +10.3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 5? No 317 1.000 $316.84 $119.07 +60.2%
Ethereum Up or Down on August 5? Up 400 0.700 $280.00 $84.00 +42.9%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 5? No 140 1.000 $139.93 $13.93 +11.1%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? No 404 0.325 $131.30 $-228.26 -63.5%
Trump out as President before 2027? No 8 0.935 $7.89 $0.92 +13.3%