PnL (30d)

−$794

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$1,904

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-0.8%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

83%

1,774W / 352L · 193 open

Win Return (30d)

80%

1,853W / 466L

Trades (30d)

2,319

across 136 markets · ~17 per market

EV / position

−$6.62

avg win $200 · loss $470

Profit Factor

0.95

$16,600 won / $17,394 lost

Reward / Risk

0.43

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$7,299

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	83.4% 1,774W/352L	136	$148,722
₿ Crypto	81.2% 78W/18L	8	$5,464
🎬 Culture	81.2% 78W/18L	8	$5,464
🌤 Weather	77.8% 35W/10L	5	$3,815
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/2L	3	$2,081
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/2L	2	$1,916

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

20 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	59,500	0.615	$36,592.40	$-11,267.31	-23.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	23,780	0.305	$7,252.85	$-2,866.78	-28.3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	19,576	0.265	$5,187.56	$-3,831.93	-42.5%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	No	2,804	0.963	$2,698.85	$539.77	+25.0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	No	2,000	0.966	$1,932.00	$216.20	+12.6%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	2,000	0.961	$1,921.00	$281.00	+17.1%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	No	2,206	0.865	$1,907.80	$12.42	+0.7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	18,145	0.095	$1,723.74	$-9,153.31	-84.2%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	2,900	0.531	$1,541.35	$-836.44	-35.2%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	4,000	0.365	$1,460.00	$-380.00	-20.7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	8,300	0.160	$1,327.98	$-1,305.19	-49.6%
Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027?	No	900	0.920	$827.95	$141.80	+20.7%
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	No	700	0.675	$472.50	$-52.50	-10.0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 5?	No	334	1.000	$333.83	$31.25	+10.3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 5?	No	317	1.000	$316.84	$119.07	+60.2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 5?	Up	600	0.475	$285.00	$-9.00	-3.1%
Ethereum Up or Down on August 5?	Up	400	0.430	$172.00	$-24.00	-12.2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 5?	No	140	1.000	$139.93	$13.93	+11.1%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	404	0.295	$119.18	$-240.38	-66.9%
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	8	0.935	$7.89	$0.92	+13.3%