PnL (30d)

+$89

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$32

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+0.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

77%

459W / 138L · 1,686 open

Win Return (30d)

51%

1,136W / 1,099L · 48 open

Trades (30d)

2,283

across 631 markets · ~4 per market

EV / position

+$0.42

avg win $5 · loss $22

Profit Factor

1.12

$828 won / $740 lost

Reward / Risk

0.21

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$233

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	86.3% 9,059W/1,443L	6130	$432,149
🌤 Weather	96.2% 807W/32L	425	$13,634
🏛 Politics	64.6% 128W/70L	270	$12,588
⚽ Sports	81.0% 47W/11L	244	$17,954
🎬 Culture	81.2% 117W/27L	178	$7,188
💵 Economy	83.3% 25W/5L	72	$4,725
🤖 Tech	0.0% 0W/1L	27	$314
₿ Crypto	100.0% 3W/0L	10	$239
🔬 Science	—	9	$147

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	55	0.285	$15.67	$13.38	+583.8%
Will Gabriel Bonfim fight Belal Muhammad in his next UFC bout?	Yes	30	0.500	$15.00	$13.12	+700.0%
Will DeepSeek have the #3 AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	45	0.320	$14.40	$12.99	+924.0%
Will Gabriel Bonfim fight Carlos Prates in his next UFC bout?	Yes	30	0.479	$14.38	$12.51	+667.2%
Will Amazon have the #3 AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	45	0.310	$13.95	$12.54	+892.0%
Will Gabriel Bonfim fight Michael Morales in his next UFC bout?	Yes	30	0.460	$13.79	$11.91	+635.2%
Will Z.ai have the #3 AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	45	0.264	$11.86	$10.45	+743.2%
Will Microsoft have the #3 AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	35	0.271	$9.48	$8.39	+767.2%
Will Nvidia have the #3 AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	35	0.262	$9.17	$8.08	+738.4%
Will MiniMax have the #3 AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	35	0.260	$9.08	$7.99	+730.4%
Will StepFun have the #3 AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	35	0.256	$8.94	$7.85	+717.6%
Will ByteDance have the #3 AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	45	0.095	$4.28	$2.87	+204.0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 5?	Yes	4	0.998	$4.23	$3.85	+997.8%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Yes	4	0.915	$3.58	$3.45	+2644.9%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 5?	Yes	4	0.985	$3.48	$3.16	+983.5%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $124-$126 on the final day of trading of the week of Aug 3 – Aug 7?	Yes	60	0.055	$3.33	$-2.17	-39.5%
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	Yes	3	0.958	$3.06	$2.96	+3061.3%
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?	Yes	5	0.650	$3.05	$2.81	+1134.9%
Will Ramzan Kadyrov win the 2026 Chechnya gubernatorial elections?	Yes	3	0.968	$3.03	$2.94	+3286.2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	4	0.675	$3.00	$2.87	+2195.0%
Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?	Yes	3	0.993	$2.94	$2.45	+495.8%
Will James Harden play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	Yes	3	0.977	$2.84	$2.75	+3122.4%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	3	0.855	$2.81	$2.68	+2037.4%
Will the Republican Party win the NY-23 House seat?	Yes	3	0.835	$2.50	$2.13	+568.0%
Will Bodø/Glimt win Norway Eliteserien?	Yes	4	0.620	$2.41	$2.19	+1016.0%