| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
No |
2,600 |
0.295 |
$766.99 |
$-421.98 |
-35.5% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
430 |
0.375 |
$161.23 |
$118.64 |
+278.5% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? |
Yes |
640 |
0.210 |
$134.34 |
$-41.35 |
-23.5% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
No |
903 |
0.147 |
$133.17 |
$-16.27 |
-10.9% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
800 |
0.165 |
$132.00 |
$-60.00 |
-31.2% |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? |
Yes |
350 |
0.307 |
$107.51 |
$9.00 |
+9.1% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? |
Yes |
1,104 |
0.095 |
$104.90 |
$5.52 |
+5.6% |
| Iran coup attempt by December 31? |
Yes |
974 |
0.105 |
$102.27 |
$34.09 |
+50.0% |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
388 |
0.255 |
$99.03 |
$47.01 |
+90.4% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? |
No |
200 |
0.400 |
$80.00 |
$8.00 |
+11.1% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? |
No |
688 |
0.115 |
$79.07 |
$-63.45 |
-44.5% |
| Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
700 |
0.095 |
$66.51 |
$-45.51 |
-40.6% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
232 |
0.269 |
$62.32 |
$20.39 |
+48.6% |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? |
Yes |
393 |
0.141 |
$55.22 |
$-10.28 |
-15.7% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? |
No |
200 |
0.275 |
$55.00 |
$-50.00 |
-47.6% |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? |
Yes |
300 |
0.180 |
$54.00 |
$9.00 |
+20.0% |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
Yes |
2,500 |
0.021 |
$53.50 |
$-6.00 |
-10.1% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? |
Yes |
426 |
0.120 |
$51.13 |
$-153.29 |
-75.0% |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? |
Yes |
763 |
0.060 |
$45.80 |
$-64.34 |
-58.4% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? |
Yes |
1,200 |
0.037 |
$45.00 |
$-39.00 |
-46.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
No |
784 |
0.055 |
$43.15 |
$-86.27 |
-66.7% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
Yes |
600 |
0.070 |
$42.00 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
No |
400 |
0.105 |
$42.00 |
$-30.00 |
-41.7% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
200 |
0.195 |
$39.00 |
$-41.00 |
-51.2% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? |
Yes |
400 |
0.090 |
$36.00 |
$-12.00 |
-25.0% |