| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
No |
2,600 |
0.285 |
$740.73 |
$-448.24 |
-37.7% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
430 |
0.405 |
$174.13 |
$131.54 |
+308.8% |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? |
No |
464 |
0.335 |
$155.50 |
$39.55 |
+34.1% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? |
Yes |
640 |
0.210 |
$134.34 |
$-41.35 |
-23.5% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
No |
903 |
0.148 |
$133.62 |
$-15.81 |
-10.6% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
800 |
0.155 |
$124.00 |
$-68.00 |
-35.4% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? |
No |
400 |
0.305 |
$121.99 |
$-8.00 |
-6.2% |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? |
Yes |
350 |
0.307 |
$107.51 |
$9.00 |
+9.1% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? |
Yes |
1,104 |
0.095 |
$104.90 |
$5.52 |
+5.6% |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
388 |
0.265 |
$102.92 |
$50.89 |
+97.8% |
| Iran coup attempt by December 31? |
Yes |
974 |
0.105 |
$102.27 |
$34.09 |
+50.0% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? |
No |
688 |
0.140 |
$96.26 |
$-46.26 |
-32.5% |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? |
Yes |
452 |
0.180 |
$81.37 |
$10.52 |
+14.8% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
232 |
0.288 |
$66.72 |
$24.79 |
+59.1% |
| Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
700 |
0.095 |
$66.51 |
$-45.51 |
-40.6% |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
Yes |
2,500 |
0.022 |
$56.25 |
$-3.25 |
-5.5% |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? |
Yes |
393 |
0.136 |
$53.45 |
$-12.05 |
-18.4% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? |
Yes |
426 |
0.120 |
$51.13 |
$-153.29 |
-75.0% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
Yes |
600 |
0.080 |
$48.00 |
$6.00 |
+14.3% |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31? |
No |
200 |
0.235 |
$47.00 |
$-58.00 |
-55.2% |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? |
Yes |
763 |
0.060 |
$45.80 |
$-64.34 |
-58.4% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? |
Yes |
1,200 |
0.036 |
$43.80 |
$-40.20 |
-47.9% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
No |
784 |
0.055 |
$43.15 |
$-86.27 |
-66.7% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? |
No |
489 |
0.075 |
$36.65 |
$-36.42 |
-49.8% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? |
Yes |
400 |
0.090 |
$36.00 |
$-12.00 |
-25.0% |