PnL (30d)

−$3

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$0

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

—

no reliable basis

Win Resolved (30d)

17%

1W / 5L · 13 open

Win Return (30d)

47%

9W / 10L

Trades (30d)

19

across 4 markets · ~5 per market

EV / position

−$1.40

avg win $1 · loss $4

Profit Factor

0.21

$1 won / $4 lost

Reward / Risk

0.21

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	77.7% 122W/35L	26	$751
🏛 Politics	—	2	$19
🎬 Culture	100.0% 25W/0L	1	$67

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

12 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	No	5	0.775	$3.88	$0.02	+0.6%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	Yes	5	0.620	$3.10	$0.60	+24.0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	3	0.745	$1.97	$0.30	+18.1%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	5	0.380	$1.90	$-0.60	-24.0%
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	Yes	5	0.225	$1.12	$-0.38	-25.0%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	No	5	0.175	$0.88	$-1.62	-65.0%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	5	0.145	$0.72	$-1.77	-71.0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	3	0.255	$0.68	$-0.65	-49.0%
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	5	0.115	$0.57	$-1.18	-67.1%
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	Yes	5	0.060	$0.30	$-2.20	-88.0%
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	Yes	5	0.060	$0.30	$-0.19	-38.4%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by August 31, 2026?	Yes	5	0.029	$0.14	$-2.35	-94.2%