| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? |
No |
5 |
0.775 |
$3.88 |
$0.02 |
+0.6% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
Yes |
5 |
0.625 |
$3.12 |
$0.62 |
+25.0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
No |
3 |
0.745 |
$1.97 |
$0.30 |
+18.1% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
5 |
0.375 |
$1.88 |
$-0.62 |
-25.0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? |
Yes |
5 |
0.225 |
$1.12 |
$-0.38 |
-25.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
No |
5 |
0.165 |
$0.82 |
$-1.68 |
-67.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
No |
5 |
0.145 |
$0.72 |
$-1.77 |
-71.0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
Yes |
3 |
0.255 |
$0.68 |
$-0.65 |
-49.0% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
Yes |
5 |
0.110 |
$0.55 |
$-1.20 |
-68.6% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
Yes |
10 |
0.055 |
$0.55 |
$-0.42 |
-43.5% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
Yes |
5 |
0.070 |
$0.35 |
$-2.15 |
-86.0% |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
5 |
0.029 |
$0.14 |
$-2.35 |
-94.2% |