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Trader leaderboard/Ersicolus

Ersicolus

0x6f36ce54f16757df7f4dd693433dfe8932f089ca
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$34
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$366
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-2.0%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
51%
45W / 44L · 150 open
Win Return (30d)
61%
144W / 93L · 2 open
Trades (30d)
239
across 39 markets · ~6 per market
EV / position
−$1.81
avg win $5 · loss $11
Profit Factor
0.60
$53 won / $87 lost
Reward / Risk
0.44
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$31
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $8,550 · all-time $281,366

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 59.9% 100W/67L 85 $4,979
🏛 Politics 37.1% 13W/22L 27 $2,152
🎬 Culture 31.2% 10W/22L 21 $1,185
⚽ Sports 93.8% 15W/1L 5 $258

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

36 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Trump post "Uranium" on Truth Social this week? Yes 300 0.450 $135.00 $83.44 +161.8%
Will Trump say "No No No" during remarks in Las Vegas? No 200 0.645 $129.00 $7.70 +6.3%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No 500 0.180 $90.00 $-21.92 -19.6%
Will Trump say "Gay" in August? Yes 200 0.400 $80.00 $16.56 +26.1%
Will Trump say "Stupid Question" this week? Yes 100 0.545 $54.50 $21.69 +66.1%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 2,000 0.025 $49.00 $-0.54 -1.1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 200 0.165 $33.00 $-6.60 -16.7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026? Yes 4,000 0.007 $30.00 $21.94 +272.2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? Yes 100 0.241 $24.10 $13.00 +117.1%
Will Trump say "Moscow" in August? Yes 55 0.330 $18.15 $-3.85 -17.5%
Will Trump say "Moon" this week? Yes 35 0.515 $18.02 $4.72 +35.5%
Will Trump say "No No No" this week? Yes 30 0.550 $16.50 $10.50 +175.0%
Will Trump say "No No No" in August? No 150 0.105 $15.75 $-5.33 -25.3%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? Yes 400 0.037 $14.80 $-12.79 -46.4%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? No 60 0.190 $11.41 $-7.28 -39.0%
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by August 31? Yes 300 0.037 $11.25 $1.22 +12.1%
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? No 90 0.125 $11.23 $6.74 +150.0%
Will Trump say "Karoline" or "Leavitt" this week? Yes 20 0.530 $10.60 $5.00 +89.3%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? Yes 2,000 0.004 $8.00 $-8.83 -52.5%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by August 31, 2026? Yes 250 0.029 $7.25 $-2.25 -23.7%
Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in August? No 30 0.200 $6.00 $0.30 +5.3%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31? Yes 600 0.010 $6.00 $-2.46 -29.1%
Will Trump post "Pope" on Truth Social this week? Yes 40 0.120 $4.80 $0.40 +9.1%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin", "Crypto", or "Cryptocurrency" during remarks in Las Vegas? Yes 100 0.045 $4.50 $-1.50 -25.0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026? Yes 500 0.009 $4.25 $3.02 +245.2%