PnL (30d)

−$60

Culture · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$112

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-1.1%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

37%

46W / 79L · 58 open

Win Return (30d)

50%

91W / 92L

Trades (30d)

183

across 34 markets · ~5 per market

EV / position

−$3.16

avg win $70 · loss $84

Profit Factor

0.92

$697 won / $757 lost

Reward / Risk

0.83

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$134

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	42.4% 108W/147L	85	$15,392
🏛 Politics	37.5% 15W/25L	24	$4,533
🎬 Culture	38.5% 15W/24L	22	$3,866
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/1L	2	$668

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

91 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	1,705	0.435	$741.81	$628.00	+551.8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	1,705	0.265	$451.90	$331.05	+273.9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	1,705	0.207	$353.84	$251.11	+244.4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	1,705	0.185	$315.51	$163.83	+108.0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	1,750	0.175	$306.24	$238.93	+355.0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	1,707	0.175	$298.71	$173.78	+139.1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	1,750	0.165	$288.74	$221.43	+329.0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	1,750	0.160	$279.99	$212.68	+316.0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	1,706	0.155	$264.43	$124.27	+88.7%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	1,750	0.135	$236.24	$168.94	+251.0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	1,701	0.125	$212.62	$103.80	+95.4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	1,711	0.105	$179.65	$46.84	+35.3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	1,750	0.095	$166.24	$98.94	+147.0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	1,700	0.095	$161.53	$46.49	+40.4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	1,750	0.085	$148.74	$81.44	+121.0%
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	300	0.390	$117.00	$6.00	+5.4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	1,706	0.065	$110.86	$7.07	+6.8%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	1,350	0.076	$102.64	$45.01	+78.1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	1,550	0.055	$85.25	$25.63	+43.0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	10,000	0.007	$75.00	$-15.00	-16.7%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	1,000	0.075	$75.00	$-1.92	-2.5%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	1,600	0.040	$63.20	$-17.67	-21.9%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	1,600	0.024	$38.41	$-57.40	-59.9%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	Yes	1,450	0.026	$37.71	$-20.15	-34.8%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	506	0.074	$37.44	$11.97	+47.0%