PnL (30d)

−$20

Economy · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$41

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-0.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

6%

24W / 350L · 630 open

Win Return (30d)

32%

323W / 681L

Trades (30d)

1,004

across 58 markets · ~17 per market

EV / position

−$1.78

avg win $9 · loss $11

Profit Factor

0.70

$46 won / $66 lost

Reward / Risk

0.84

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$37

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	50.2% 3,304W/3,273L	735	$130,755
🏛 Politics	32.0% 24W/51L	205	$5,386
🎬 Culture	15.7% 8W/43L	70	$857
💵 Economy	17.0% 8W/39L	40	$686
🤖 Tech	0.0% 0W/1L	39	$608
🔬 Science	0.0% 0W/1L	11	$222
🌤 Weather	—	8	$109

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

195 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	560	0.155	$86.80	$2.80	+3.3%
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	522	0.105	$54.78	$-20.78	-27.5%
Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027?	No	65	0.815	$52.68	$52.04	+8049.0%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	84	0.625	$52.54	$-1.26	-2.3%
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	912	0.055	$50.16	$-27.09	-35.1%
Maduro guilty of all counts?	Yes	175	0.260	$45.54	$15.27	+50.5%
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	307	0.135	$41.41	$-12.66	-23.4%
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Yes	140	0.295	$41.40	$-3.76	-8.3%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	42	0.979	$41.38	$2.52	+6.5%
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?	Yes	358	0.114	$40.85	$24.16	+144.7%
Will Zach Bryan have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Yes	192	0.210	$40.37	$20.10	+99.2%
Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	88	0.445	$39.12	$6.37	+19.4%
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?	Yes	85	0.460	$39.10	$-0.28	-0.7%
Will Daylight Savings Time become permanent in the US in 2026?	Yes	146	0.255	$37.35	$-4.23	-10.2%
Tom Holland as Spider-Man?	Yes	70	0.510	$35.55	$15.83	+80.3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	41	0.866	$35.49	$-1.71	-4.6%
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	Yes	170	0.205	$34.85	$-1.40	-3.9%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026?	Yes	190	0.180	$34.19	$9.13	+36.4%
Will Doja Cat have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Yes	105	0.324	$33.93	$29.74	+710.0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	337	0.095	$32.02	$-5.06	-13.6%
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	118	0.265	$31.27	$3.64	+13.2%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" before 2027?	Yes	367	0.085	$31.20	$-10.95	-26.0%
Will Renan Santos qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	361	0.085	$30.68	$-3.42	-10.0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Yes	246	0.115	$28.33	$-13.51	-32.3%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?	Yes	506	0.055	$27.83	$-14.21	-33.8%