PnL (30d)

−$12

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$9

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-25.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

40%

4W / 6L · 28 open

Win Return (30d)

29%

11W / 27L

Trades (30d)

38

across 11 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$1.97

avg win $0 · loss $3

Profit Factor

0.08

$1 won / $13 lost

Reward / Risk

0.16

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	19.1% 273W/1,160L	298	$1,542
🌤 Weather	7.8% 4W/47L	16	$51
⚽ Sports	48.0% 12W/13L	16	$109
₿ Crypto	—	5	$43
💵 Economy	—	4	$36
🏛 Politics	—	1	$7

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

34 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	Yes	160	0.185	$29.68	$6.70	+29.1%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	42	0.545	$22.62	$6.33	+38.8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August?	Yes	370	0.060	$22.20	$15.17	+215.8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	20	0.840	$16.80	$-0.80	-4.5%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	28	0.505	$14.02	$0.97	+7.4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?	Yes	170	0.079	$13.44	$-0.21	-1.5%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.06 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	16	0.725	$11.75	$5.75	+95.9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?	Yes	155	0.075	$11.62	$-4.37	-27.3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	13	0.675	$8.59	$1.59	+22.7%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	19	0.415	$7.88	$0.85	+12.2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Yes	88	0.085	$7.44	$0.44	+6.2%
National Bank Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Joao Fonseca	Stefanos Tsitsipas	17	0.425	$7.26	$0.26	+3.7%
National Bank Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Ben Shelton	Jenson Brooksby	28	0.255	$7.14	$0.14	+2.0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?	Yes	47	0.150	$7.00	$0.00	+0.0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?	Yes	26	0.265	$6.89	$-0.13	-1.9%
National Bank Open: Ignacio Buse vs Cameron Norrie	Ignacio Buse	21	0.325	$6.70	$-0.31	-4.4%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	Yes	24	0.239	$5.71	$-1.59	-21.8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in August?	Yes	25	0.220	$5.50	$-1.50	-21.4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?	Yes	175	0.029	$5.08	$-1.93	-27.5%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	58	0.085	$4.91	$-4.83	-49.6%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?	Yes	60	0.080	$4.80	$-1.20	-20.0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	31	0.155	$4.78	$-0.90	-15.9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on August 6?	Yes	28	0.165	$4.67	$0.42	+10.0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?	Yes	57	0.065	$3.72	$-3.28	-46.8%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	60	0.055	$3.30	$-2.70	-45.0%