| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
9,828 |
0.852 |
$8,373.15 |
$1,071.14 |
+14.7% |
| Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? |
Yes |
3,619 |
0.987 |
$3,571.75 |
$2,999.77 |
+524.5% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
3,108 |
0.825 |
$2,563.92 |
$184.58 |
+7.8% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? |
No |
2,497 |
0.915 |
$2,285.16 |
$17.49 |
+0.8% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.999 |
$1,997.00 |
$657.00 |
+49.0% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? |
No |
2,046 |
0.964 |
$1,971.65 |
$23.32 |
+1.2% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? |
No |
1,960 |
0.991 |
$1,941.37 |
$227.07 |
+13.2% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
2,000 |
0.966 |
$1,932.00 |
$527.00 |
+37.5% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,848 |
0.905 |
$1,672.87 |
$-5.03 |
-0.3% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 5? |
Yes |
2,498 |
0.650 |
$1,623.56 |
$1,396.49 |
+615.0% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
Yes |
10,326 |
0.145 |
$1,497.20 |
$-898.92 |
-37.5% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? |
No |
1,655 |
0.865 |
$1,431.90 |
$199.87 |
+16.2% |
| Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? |
Yes |
1,300 |
0.958 |
$1,245.40 |
$1,206.01 |
+3061.4% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026? |
Yes |
1,570 |
0.729 |
$1,144.54 |
$1,095.47 |
+2232.8% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 6? |
Yes |
2,100 |
0.520 |
$1,092.00 |
$42.00 |
+4.0% |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
2,010 |
0.539 |
$1,084.21 |
$1,061.63 |
+4702.0% |
| Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? |
Yes |
1,705 |
0.585 |
$997.58 |
$962.78 |
+2766.5% |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? |
Yes |
1,102 |
0.885 |
$974.98 |
$864.81 |
+785.0% |
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? |
Yes |
1,304 |
0.745 |
$971.12 |
$930.38 |
+2284.0% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? |
Yes |
1,179 |
0.790 |
$931.28 |
$85.46 |
+10.1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 7? |
Yes |
2,100 |
0.435 |
$913.50 |
$722.59 |
+378.5% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? |
No |
1,205 |
0.755 |
$909.42 |
$396.70 |
+77.4% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
Yes |
1,087 |
0.835 |
$907.59 |
$693.43 |
+323.8% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? |
Yes |
1,443 |
0.615 |
$887.35 |
$165.93 |
+23.0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 6? |
Yes |
2,093 |
0.415 |
$868.62 |
$678.34 |
+356.5% |