| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
9,828 |
0.850 |
$8,348.58 |
$1,046.57 |
+14.3% |
| Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? |
Yes |
3,619 |
0.967 |
$3,497.57 |
$2,925.58 |
+511.5% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
3,068 |
0.835 |
$2,561.60 |
$215.46 |
+9.2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? |
No |
2,497 |
0.915 |
$2,285.16 |
$17.49 |
+0.8% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
2,000 |
0.999 |
$1,997.00 |
$657.00 |
+49.0% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? |
No |
2,046 |
0.964 |
$1,971.65 |
$23.32 |
+1.2% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? |
No |
1,960 |
0.991 |
$1,941.37 |
$227.07 |
+13.2% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
2,000 |
0.968 |
$1,935.00 |
$530.00 |
+37.7% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,848 |
0.902 |
$1,668.25 |
$-9.65 |
-0.6% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
Yes |
10,326 |
0.145 |
$1,497.20 |
$-898.92 |
-37.5% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? |
No |
1,655 |
0.865 |
$1,431.90 |
$199.87 |
+16.2% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 5? |
Yes |
2,498 |
0.560 |
$1,398.76 |
$1,171.69 |
+516.0% |
| Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? |
Yes |
1,300 |
0.958 |
$1,245.40 |
$1,206.01 |
+3061.4% |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
2,010 |
0.535 |
$1,076.17 |
$1,053.59 |
+4666.4% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026? |
Yes |
1,570 |
0.663 |
$1,041.70 |
$992.64 |
+2023.2% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 6? |
Yes |
2,100 |
0.470 |
$987.00 |
$-63.00 |
-6.0% |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? |
Yes |
1,102 |
0.885 |
$974.98 |
$864.81 |
+785.0% |
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? |
Yes |
1,304 |
0.747 |
$973.07 |
$932.34 |
+2288.8% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 5? |
Yes |
2,222 |
0.435 |
$966.73 |
$-144.45 |
-13.0% |
| Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? |
Yes |
1,705 |
0.565 |
$963.31 |
$928.50 |
+2668.0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 6? |
Yes |
2,093 |
0.450 |
$941.87 |
$751.60 |
+395.0% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? |
No |
1,205 |
0.755 |
$909.42 |
$396.70 |
+77.4% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? |
Yes |
1,179 |
0.765 |
$901.81 |
$55.99 |
+6.6% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 7? |
Yes |
2,100 |
0.425 |
$892.50 |
$701.59 |
+367.5% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? |
Yes |
1,443 |
0.615 |
$887.35 |
$165.93 |
+23.0% |