| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
9,828 |
0.846 |
$8,309.27 |
$1,007.26 |
+13.8% |
| Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? |
Yes |
3,619 |
0.978 |
$3,537.37 |
$2,965.39 |
+518.4% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
3,286 |
0.865 |
$2,842.13 |
$309.92 |
+12.2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? |
No |
2,497 |
0.920 |
$2,297.64 |
$29.98 |
+1.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
2,000 |
1.000 |
$1,999.00 |
$659.00 |
+49.2% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? |
No |
2,046 |
0.964 |
$1,971.65 |
$23.32 |
+1.2% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
2,000 |
0.973 |
$1,946.00 |
$541.00 |
+38.5% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? |
No |
1,960 |
0.991 |
$1,941.37 |
$227.07 |
+13.2% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 6? |
Yes |
2,099 |
0.885 |
$1,857.53 |
$808.08 |
+77.0% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
Yes |
10,326 |
0.155 |
$1,600.46 |
$-795.67 |
-33.2% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,730 |
0.874 |
$1,511.16 |
$-5.12 |
-0.3% |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? |
No |
1,655 |
0.865 |
$1,431.90 |
$199.87 |
+16.2% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 7? |
Yes |
2,100 |
0.600 |
$1,260.00 |
$1,069.09 |
+560.0% |
| Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? |
Yes |
1,300 |
0.954 |
$1,240.20 |
$1,200.81 |
+3048.2% |
| Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid? |
Yes |
1,297 |
0.920 |
$1,193.04 |
$1,124.79 |
+1648.0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 8? |
Yes |
2,100 |
0.530 |
$1,113.00 |
$922.09 |
+483.0% |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
2,010 |
0.552 |
$1,110.33 |
$1,087.75 |
+4817.7% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? |
No |
1,205 |
0.915 |
$1,102.15 |
$589.43 |
+115.0% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
Yes |
1,168 |
0.855 |
$998.55 |
$650.13 |
+186.6% |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? |
Yes |
1,102 |
0.885 |
$974.98 |
$864.81 |
+785.0% |
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? |
Yes |
1,304 |
0.743 |
$967.86 |
$927.13 |
+2276.0% |
| Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? |
Yes |
1,705 |
0.565 |
$963.31 |
$928.50 |
+2668.0% |
| Will OpenAI's public ticker be $OAI? |
Yes |
1,300 |
0.635 |
$825.50 |
$757.08 |
+1106.5% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? |
Yes |
1,243 |
0.655 |
$814.06 |
$192.64 |
+31.0% |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? |
No |
1,140 |
0.680 |
$775.08 |
$144.98 |
+23.0% |