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Trader leaderboard/Rain-Prob-01

Rain-Prob-01

0x57f58473f8b0c0ea6f025cae8c31bea5e78cc1c9
Scoped to Science — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$8
Science · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$1
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-56.7%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
0%
0W / 4L · 3 open
Win Return (30d)
0%
0W / 6L · 1 open
Trades (30d)
7
across 7 markets · ~1 per market
EV / position
−$1.96
· loss $2
Profit Factor
0.00
$0 won / $8 lost
Reward / Risk
need wins & losses
Max Drawdown
−$2
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $329 · all-time $94,443

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 14.8% 9W/52L 138 $420
🏛 Politics 0.0% 0W/4L 17 $52
⚽ Sports 6 $12
💵 Economy 100.0% 2W/0L 2 $17
🎬 Culture 2 $3
₿ Crypto 1 $2
🤖 Tech 1 $2
🔬 Science 0.0% 0W/1L 1 $2

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? No 42 0.395 $16.59 $14.59 +729.5%
Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027? No 17 0.815 $14.13 $12.13 +606.5%
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? No 18 0.525 $9.54 $7.54 +377.3%
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? No 16 0.530 $8.57 $6.57 +328.8%
Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22? No 16 0.520 $8.40 $6.40 +320.0%
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 22 0.375 $8.33 $6.33 +316.7%
Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel? No 16 0.470 $7.47 $5.47 +273.7%
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? No 17 0.400 $6.66 $4.66 +233.3%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League? No 20 0.327 $6.54 $4.54 +227.0%
Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026? No 10 0.630 $6.30 $5.30 +530.0%
Will Helena Foulkes win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election? No 38 0.158 $6.07 $2.07 +51.8%
Will the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein not be revealed in 2026? No 16 0.360 $5.76 $3.76 +188.1%
Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026? Sinner 8 0.690 $5.75 $3.91 +212.2%
Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida? No 65 0.085 $5.49 $1.49 +37.3%
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? No 33 0.145 $4.83 $2.83 +141.4%
Will Kendrick Lamar have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? No 15 0.310 $4.77 $2.99 +167.6%
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-08 House seat? No 16 0.295 $4.74 $2.74 +136.9%
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? No 24 0.195 $4.71 $2.71 +135.7%
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? No 17 0.255 $4.25 $2.25 +112.5%
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? No 16 0.255 $4.06 $2.06 +103.0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No 18 0.210 $3.82 $1.82 +90.9%
Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026? No 48 0.079 $3.79 $1.79 +89.7%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? No 18 0.205 $3.73 $1.73 +86.4%
Will the Republican Party win the ID-01 House seat? No 61 0.059 $3.61 $1.61 +80.3%
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? No 15 0.220 $3.34 $1.34 +67.0%