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Trader leaderboard/Rain-Prob-01

Rain-Prob-01

0x57f58473f8b0c0ea6f025cae8c31bea5e78cc1c9
Scoped to Culture — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$11
Culture · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$20
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-21.0%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
19%
4W / 17L · 11 open
Win Return (30d)
35%
11W / 20L · 1 open
Trades (30d)
32
across 26 markets · ~1 per market
EV / position
−$0.69
avg win $19 · loss $2
Profit Factor
0.63
$19 won / $30 lost
Reward / Risk
9.47
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $329 · all-time $94,443

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 14.8% 9W/52L 138 $420
🏛 Politics 0.0% 0W/4L 14 $46
⚽ Sports 6 $12
💵 Economy 100.0% 2W/0L 2 $17
🎬 Culture 2 $3
₿ Crypto 1 $2
🤖 Tech 1 $2
🔬 Science 0.0% 0W/1L 1 $2

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? No 42 0.395 $16.59 $14.59 +729.5%
Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027? No 17 0.805 $13.96 $11.96 +597.9%
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? No 18 0.535 $9.73 $7.73 +386.4%
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? No 16 0.540 $8.73 $6.73 +336.9%
Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22? No 16 0.530 $8.56 $6.56 +328.1%
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 22 0.375 $8.33 $6.33 +316.7%
Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel? No 16 0.470 $7.47 $5.47 +273.7%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League? No 20 0.327 $6.54 $4.54 +227.0%
Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026? No 10 0.630 $6.30 $5.30 +530.0%
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? No 17 0.375 $6.25 $4.25 +212.5%
Will Helena Foulkes win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election? No 38 0.153 $5.88 $1.88 +47.0%
Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026? Sinner 8 0.690 $5.75 $3.91 +212.2%
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? No 33 0.163 $5.41 $3.41 +170.5%
Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida? No 65 0.083 $5.40 $1.40 +34.9%
Will the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein not be revealed in 2026? No 16 0.335 $5.36 $3.36 +168.1%
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? No 24 0.203 $4.92 $2.92 +145.9%
Will Kendrick Lamar have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? No 15 0.310 $4.77 $2.99 +167.6%
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-08 House seat? No 16 0.295 $4.74 $2.74 +136.9%
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? No 17 0.255 $4.25 $2.25 +112.5%
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? No 16 0.255 $4.06 $2.06 +103.0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No 18 0.210 $3.82 $1.82 +90.9%
Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026? No 48 0.079 $3.79 $1.79 +89.7%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? No 18 0.205 $3.73 $1.73 +86.4%
Will the Republican Party win the ID-01 House seat? No 61 0.059 $3.61 $1.61 +80.3%
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-03 House seat? No 18 0.180 $3.27 $1.27 +63.6%