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Trader leaderboard/Rain-Prob-01

Rain-Prob-01

0x57f58473f8b0c0ea6f025cae8c31bea5e78cc1c9
PnL (30d)
−$27
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$44
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-10.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
15%
9W / 50L · 92 open
Win Return (30d)
29%
42W / 105L · 4 open
Trades (30d)
151
across 137 markets · ~1 per market
EV / position
−$0.56
avg win $16 · loss $2
Profit Factor
0.69
$62 won / $90 lost
Reward / Risk
7.81
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$10
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $329 · all-time $94,015

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 15.3% 9W/50L 137 $418
🏛 Politics 0.0% 0W/2L 17 $52
⚽ Sports 6 $12
💵 Economy 100.0% 2W/0L 2 $17
₿ Crypto 1 $2
🤖 Tech 1 $2
🎬 Culture 1 $1
🔬 Science 0.0% 0W/1L 1 $2

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? No 42 0.395 $16.59 $14.59 +729.5%
Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027? No 17 0.800 $13.87 $11.87 +593.6%
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? No 18 0.565 $10.27 $8.27 +413.5%
Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22? No 16 0.530 $8.56 $6.56 +328.1%
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 22 0.375 $8.33 $6.33 +316.7%
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? No 16 0.510 $8.25 $6.25 +312.6%
Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel? No 16 0.475 $7.55 $5.55 +277.6%
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? No 17 0.400 $6.66 $4.66 +233.3%
Will the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein not be revealed in 2026? No 16 0.415 $6.64 $4.64 +232.1%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League? No 20 0.327 $6.54 $4.54 +227.0%
Will Helena Foulkes win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election? No 38 0.166 $6.38 $2.38 +59.5%
Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026? No 10 0.630 $6.30 $5.30 +530.0%
Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026? Sinner 8 0.700 $5.83 $3.99 +216.8%
Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida? No 65 0.083 $5.40 $1.40 +34.9%
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? No 33 0.150 $4.99 $2.99 +149.7%
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? No 24 0.200 $4.82 $2.82 +141.1%
Will Kendrick Lamar have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? No 15 0.310 $4.77 $2.99 +167.6%
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-08 House seat? No 16 0.295 $4.74 $2.74 +136.9%
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? No 17 0.255 $4.25 $2.25 +112.5%
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election? No 16 0.255 $4.06 $2.06 +103.0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No 18 0.215 $3.91 $1.91 +95.5%
Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026? No 48 0.079 $3.79 $1.79 +89.7%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? No 18 0.205 $3.73 $1.73 +86.4%
Will the Republican Party win the ID-01 House seat? No 61 0.059 $3.61 $1.61 +80.3%
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-03 House seat? No 18 0.180 $3.27 $1.27 +63.6%