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Trader leaderboard/merz1305

merz1305

0x52ebca459280966f4a56240a05e38df8527067ac
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$127
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$466
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-0.7%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
38%
57W / 94L · 391 open
Win Return (30d)
55%
290W / 241L · 11 open
Trades (30d)
542
across 144 markets · ~4 per market
EV / position
−$2.16
avg win $96 · loss $65
Profit Factor
0.95
$2,209 won / $2,336 lost
Reward / Risk
1.48
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$1,422
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $248,586 · all-time $6,234,831

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 52.9% 8,293W/7,398L 5954 $627,015
🌤 Weather 58.5% 451W/320L 369 $32,472
🏛 Politics 42.0% 34W/47L 99 $16,314
🎬 Culture 62.1% 18W/11L 70 $14,179
⚽ Sports 64.3% 9W/5L 70 $16,744
🤖 Tech 63.6% 7W/4L 24 $3,220
💵 Economy 33.3% 3W/6L 15 $3,755
🔬 Science 7 $789
₿ Crypto 3 $820

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

200 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? No 807 0.993 $800.95 $652.62 +440.0%
Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? Yes 738 0.985 $726.70 $469.47 +182.5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 5? No 787 0.790 $621.73 $192.22 +44.8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 5? No 564 1.000 $563.49 $212.55 +60.6%
Will Dalia Al-Aqidi be the MN-05 Republican nominee? Yes 700 0.715 $500.50 $-28.00 -5.3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on August 5? No 385 0.993 $381.99 $163.33 +74.7%
Will Nicolás Castro (Toluca) record the most assists in the 2026-27 Liga MX season? No 400 0.925 $370.00 $6.00 +1.6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 6? No 530 0.670 $355.10 $-29.83 -7.7%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%? No 337 0.997 $336.22 $56.92 +20.4%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 5,270 0.062 $329.35 $-100.85 -23.4%
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea? Yes 408 0.804 $328.55 $8.25 +2.6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 6? No 670 0.485 $325.00 $-53.18 -14.1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 5? Yes 321 1.000 $320.84 $224.54 +233.2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 6? No 488 0.655 $319.64 $8.11 +2.6%
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%? No 360 0.870 $313.20 $62.26 +24.8%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on August 6? No 509 0.610 $310.49 $-26.25 -7.8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 6? No 488 0.635 $309.88 $-38.48 -11.0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 6? No 563 0.535 $301.20 $25.26 +9.2%
Will Trump meet with King Mohammed VI in 2026? No 350 0.860 $301.00 $0.00 +0.0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on August 6? No 497 0.570 $283.41 $-44.76 -13.6%
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 25–30%? No 350 0.805 $281.75 $-15.75 -5.3%
Will "Beef" win 0 or 1 awards at the Emmys? No 580 0.472 $273.76 $-41.60 -13.2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 6? No 484 0.550 $266.20 $-55.65 -17.3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 6? No 419 0.625 $262.16 $-34.01 -11.5%
Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? Yes 382 0.680 $259.76 $-65.43 -20.1%