PnL (30d)

+$167

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$35

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+2.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

38%

44W / 72L · 71 open

Win Return (30d)

45%

84W / 103L

Trades (30d)

187

across 41 markets · ~5 per market

EV / position

+$6.17

avg win $91 · loss $72

Profit Factor

1.16

$1,179 won / $1,012 lost

Reward / Risk

1.25

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$485

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	37.9% 44W/72L	41	$13,722
💵 Economy	30.8% 8W/18L	11	$6,400
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/10L	7	$3,783
₿ Crypto	0.0% 0W/8L	2	$114

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

16 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?	Yes	1,054	0.986	$1,039.49	$103.58	+11.1%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?	Yes	641	0.833	$533.94	$29.33	+5.8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	678	0.305	$206.84	$6.84	+3.4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	250	0.685	$171.25	$6.25	+3.8%
Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	264	0.595	$156.85	$-40.69	-20.6%
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%?	Yes	450	0.335	$150.59	$36.00	+31.4%
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?	Yes	233	0.388	$90.37	$1.99	+2.3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	214	0.165	$35.29	$-2.46	-6.5%
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?	Yes	260	0.098	$25.35	$-46.45	-64.7%
Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	160	0.125	$20.01	$-75.07	-79.0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	382	0.013	$5.16	$-3.84	-42.7%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting?	Yes	603	0.003	$1.81	$-11.70	-86.6%
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.50% and 6.99%?	Yes	83	0.018	$1.45	$-5.59	-79.5%
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after August 2026 meeting?	Yes	65	0.021	$1.37	$-19.61	-93.5%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	192	0.003	$0.48	$-2.20	-82.1%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	160	0.003	$0.40	$-0.72	-64.3%