Trader
0x4da9074e692d616114e5fc4ca0a78e7551443f5d
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
−$9
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$15
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-2.4%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
86%
78W / 13L · 86 open
Win Return (30d)
92%
162W / 15L
Trades (30d)
177
across 11 markets · ~16 per market
EV / position
−$1.23
avg win $1 · loss $6
Profit Factor
0.29
$4 won / $12 lost
Reward / Risk
0.12
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$12
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $156 · all-time $6,590
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
8 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
155 |
0.845 |
$130.75 |
$14.90 |
+12.9% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
Yes |
18 |
0.600 |
$10.58 |
$-0.58 |
-5.2% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
No |
18 |
0.515 |
$9.51 |
$-0.43 |
-4.3% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
9 |
0.715 |
$6.38 |
$0.85 |
+15.3% |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 2, 2026? |
No |
5 |
0.989 |
$5.02 |
$0.05 |
+1.0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August? |
No |
6 |
0.710 |
$4.59 |
$-0.32 |
-6.6% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
7 |
0.355 |
$2.64 |
$-0.63 |
-19.3% |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? |
No |
2 |
0.940 |
$1.82 |
$0.58 |
+46.9% |