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Trader leaderboard/TheManInTheSky

TheManInTheSky

0x4bc26247abd4c4f908c786c4873acd49beb2597a
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$66
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$214
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-2.9%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
9%
13W / 138L · 202 open
Win Return (30d)
33%
117W / 236L
Trades (30d)
353
across 12 markets · ~29 per market
EV / position
−$33.02
avg win $9 · loss $75
Profit Factor
0.12
$9 won / $75 lost
Reward / Risk
0.12
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$4
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $15,334 · all-time $5,147,004

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 36.9% 103W/176L 25 $12,911
🏛 Politics 0.0% 0W/12L 9 $859
💵 Economy 1 $34

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

14 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 8,408 0.065 $546.50 $-402.55 -42.4%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes 4,022 0.115 $462.52 $-208.99 -31.1%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 1,752 0.165 $289.01 $-58.78 -16.9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No 603 0.465 $280.45 $-20.94 -6.9%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes 1,486 0.150 $222.85 $-98.23 -30.6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? No 273 0.705 $192.17 $-5.45 -2.8%
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 2,374 0.065 $154.33 $-20.74 -11.8%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes 2,463 0.052 $128.05 $-11.74 -8.4%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 214 0.560 $119.59 $-2.26 -1.9%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? No 416 0.215 $89.50 $-1.93 -2.1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? Yes 1,961 0.013 $24.51 $-8.99 -26.8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? No 87 0.275 $23.83 $-3.51 -12.8%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes 220 0.070 $15.39 $-0.01 -0.0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? Yes 37 0.375 $13.86 $-4.99 -26.5%