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Trader leaderboard/TheManInTheSky

TheManInTheSky

0x4bc26247abd4c4f908c786c4873acd49beb2597a
PnL (30d)
+$217
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$49
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+3.3%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
37%
103W / 176L · 337 open
Win Return (30d)
51%
315W / 301L
Trades (30d)
616
across 25 markets · ~25 per market
EV / position
+$27.09
avg win $67 · loss $92
Profit Factor
2.17
$402 won / $185 lost
Reward / Risk
0.72
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$4
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $15,220 · all-time $5,146,889

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 36.9% 103W/176L 25 $12,911
🏛 Politics 0.0% 0W/21L 9 $874
💵 Economy 1 $34

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

14 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 8,408 0.065 $546.50 $-402.55 -42.4%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Yes 4,022 0.115 $462.52 $-208.99 -31.1%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 1,752 0.170 $297.77 $-50.02 -14.4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No 603 0.440 $265.37 $-36.02 -12.0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? Yes 1,486 0.150 $222.85 $-98.23 -30.6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? No 273 0.710 $193.54 $-4.08 -2.1%
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 2,374 0.065 $154.33 $-20.74 -11.8%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes 2,463 0.051 $125.34 $-14.45 -10.3%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 214 0.560 $119.59 $-2.26 -1.9%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? No 416 0.235 $97.82 $6.40 +7.0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? No 87 0.275 $23.83 $-3.51 -12.8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? Yes 1,961 0.012 $23.53 $-9.97 -29.8%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Yes 220 0.075 $16.49 $1.09 +7.1%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? Yes 37 0.375 $13.86 $-4.99 -26.5%