T123
0x49ae18c82dab9fd3a2bb84d0a96c3ded503ff3ba
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
+$1,405
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$788
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+3.8%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
79%
81W / 22L · 23 open
Win Return (30d)
82%
103W / 23L
Trades (30d)
126
across 10 markets · ~13 per market
EV / position
+$280.94
avg win $489 · loss $31
Profit Factor
23.90
$1,466 won / $61 lost
Reward / Risk
15.94
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$108
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $9,082 · all-time $1,836,931
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
6 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? |
No |
9,166 |
0.945 |
$8,657.17 |
$334.45 |
+4.0% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? |
No |
6,636 |
0.865 |
$5,739.94 |
$349.09 |
+6.5% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,500 |
0.750 |
$1,125.00 |
$55.00 |
+5.1% |
| Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal? |
No |
150 |
0.595 |
$89.24 |
$-18.19 |
-16.9% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
179 |
0.117 |
$20.85 |
$-10.29 |
-33.0% |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in July? |
Yes |
132 |
0.054 |
$7.21 |
$6.05 |
+522.3% |