PnL (30d)

−$11

Crypto · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$58

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-7.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

20%

1W / 4L · 20 open

Win Return (30d)

5%

1W / 20L · 4 open

Trades (30d)

25

across 13 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$3.64

avg win $2 · loss $7

Profit Factor

0.17

$2 won / $13 lost

Reward / Risk

0.35

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	42.1% 91W/125L	102	$7,489
💵 Economy	100.0% 1W/0L	11	$155
🏛 Politics	33.3% 2W/4L	8	$308
₿ Crypto	100.0% 1W/0L	8	$80

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

35 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the AAVE TVL go below $10B in 2026?	Yes	797	0.305	$242.96	$-142.71	-37.0%
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	Yes	636	0.335	$212.93	$59.49	+38.8%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	4,476	0.038	$172.34	$-176.23	-50.6%
New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	1,833	0.065	$119.17	$-80.83	-40.4%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase August 4-10?	No	125	0.910	$113.75	$4.87	+4.5%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	507	0.165	$83.60	$-18.40	-18.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	100	0.695	$69.49	$-3.51	-4.8%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	200	0.278	$55.50	$-26.74	-32.5%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	925	0.034	$31.45	$-118.55	-79.0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	No	288	0.100	$28.81	$-72.06	-71.4%
Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?	Yes	372	0.075	$27.90	$-11.30	-28.8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	236	0.115	$27.11	$-16.79	-38.3%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	100	0.185	$18.50	$-4.50	-19.6%
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	Yes	300	0.060	$18.00	$-58.00	-76.3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	413	0.043	$17.55	$-18.85	-51.8%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	42	0.295	$12.28	$-1.46	-10.6%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by August 31, 2026?	Yes	378	0.029	$10.97	$-16.16	-59.6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?	Yes	145	0.070	$10.17	$-20.14	-66.5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	100	0.095	$9.50	$-3.50	-26.9%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	100	0.086	$8.55	$0.85	+11.0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	100	0.075	$7.50	$-5.50	-42.3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	300	0.018	$5.55	$-13.25	-70.5%
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	21	0.250	$5.25	$-4.62	-46.8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?	Yes	100	0.043	$4.34	$-11.66	-72.9%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	Yes	37	0.105	$3.88	$-6.47	-62.5%