PnL (30d)

−$524

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$205

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-11.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

42%

91W / 125L · 137 open

Win Return (30d)

43%

146W / 197L · 10 open

Trades (30d)

353

across 102 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$8.88

avg win $24 · loss $41

Profit Factor

0.58

$709 won / $1,233 lost

Reward / Risk

0.59

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$107

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	42.1% 91W/125L	102	$7,424
💵 Economy	50.0% 2W/2L	12	$304
🏛 Politics	50.0% 4W/4L	9	$385
₿ Crypto	0.0% 0W/2L	8	$83

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

35 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the AAVE TVL go below $10B in 2026?	Yes	797	0.320	$254.91	$-130.76	-33.9%
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	Yes	636	0.330	$209.75	$56.31	+36.7%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	4,476	0.037	$167.87	$-180.71	-51.8%
New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	1,833	0.065	$119.17	$-80.83	-40.4%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase August 4-10?	No	125	0.895	$111.88	$3.00	+2.8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	507	0.155	$78.53	$-23.47	-23.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	100	0.695	$69.49	$-3.51	-4.8%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	200	0.278	$55.50	$-26.74	-32.5%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	925	0.033	$30.06	$-119.94	-80.0%
Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?	Yes	372	0.075	$27.90	$-11.30	-28.8%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	No	288	0.095	$27.37	$-73.50	-72.9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	236	0.115	$27.11	$-16.79	-38.3%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	100	0.185	$18.50	$-4.50	-19.6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	413	0.042	$17.13	$-19.27	-52.9%
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	Yes	300	0.055	$16.50	$-59.50	-78.3%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	42	0.290	$12.07	$-1.66	-12.1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?	Yes	145	0.080	$11.62	$-18.69	-61.7%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by August 31, 2026?	Yes	378	0.030	$11.54	$-15.59	-57.5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	100	0.095	$9.50	$-3.50	-26.9%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	100	0.086	$8.55	$0.85	+11.0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	100	0.075	$7.50	$-5.50	-42.3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	300	0.019	$5.85	$-12.95	-68.9%
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	21	0.250	$5.25	$-4.62	-46.8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in August?	Yes	600	0.007	$4.20	$-4.20	-50.0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?	Yes	100	0.042	$4.15	$-11.85	-74.1%