PnL (30d)

+$176

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$39

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+11.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

59%

144W / 99L · 97 open

Win Return (30d)

57%

194W / 146L

Trades (30d)

340

across 84 markets · ~4 per market

EV / position

+$2.99

avg win $19 · loss $11

Profit Factor

1.51

$520 won / $344 lost

Reward / Risk

1.79

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$33

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	59.3% 144W/99L	84	$1,761
🏛 Politics	55.6% 5W/4L	6	$38
🎬 Culture	40.0% 2W/3L	3	$12
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/1L	1	$5

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

33 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	141	0.715	$101.11	$27.78	+37.9%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	102	0.785	$80.41	$38.75	+93.0%
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	55	0.890	$48.70	$17.01	+53.7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	275	0.165	$45.32	$1.72	+4.0%
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	No	43	0.890	$38.39	$11.75	+44.1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	51	0.675	$34.32	$5.59	+19.5%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	No	35	0.959	$33.30	$7.01	+26.6%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	211	0.145	$30.55	$-66.11	-68.4%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	Yes	33	0.825	$27.32	$6.74	+32.7%
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	32	0.715	$22.53	$2.28	+11.2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	64	0.255	$16.44	$-20.42	-55.4%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	71	0.215	$15.22	$-34.06	-69.1%
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	No	10	0.945	$9.54	$3.44	+56.5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	No	10	0.875	$9.15	$1.62	+21.5%
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	75	0.110	$8.29	$-17.28	-67.6%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	No	46	0.175	$8.13	$-13.29	-62.0%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Yes	50	0.145	$7.32	$0.76	+11.5%
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	41	0.145	$5.98	$-4.33	-42.0%
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	No	6	0.930	$5.92	$0.57	+10.7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	6	0.835	$5.37	$0.87	+19.3%
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	13	0.335	$4.28	$-0.57	-11.8%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	78	0.045	$3.50	$-16.72	-82.7%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	No	14	0.235	$3.25	$-5.07	-60.9%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	9	0.277	$2.54	$0.84	+49.5%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	11	0.220	$2.48	$-3.57	-59.1%