PnL (30d)

+$307

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$6

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+86.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

78%

45W / 13L · 9 open

Win Return (30d)

78%

52W / 15L

Trades (30d)

67

across 28 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

+$13.34

avg win $23 · loss $4

Profit Factor

9.77

$342 won / $35 lost

Reward / Risk

5.21

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$5

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	59.3% 144W/99L	84	$1,761
🏛 Politics	75.0% 3W/1L	2	$13
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/1L	1	$5

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

33 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	Yes	141	0.710	$100.40	$27.07	+36.9%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	Yes	102	0.795	$81.44	$39.77	+95.5%
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	55	0.890	$48.70	$17.01	+53.7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	275	0.155	$42.57	$-1.02	-2.3%
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	No	43	0.895	$38.61	$11.97	+44.9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	51	0.675	$34.32	$5.59	+19.5%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	No	35	0.962	$33.40	$7.11	+27.0%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	211	0.135	$28.44	$-68.21	-70.6%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	Yes	33	0.840	$27.82	$7.24	+35.2%
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	32	0.715	$22.53	$2.28	+11.2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	64	0.255	$16.44	$-20.42	-55.4%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	71	0.205	$14.51	$-34.77	-70.6%
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	No	10	0.935	$9.44	$3.34	+54.8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	No	10	0.875	$9.15	$1.62	+21.5%
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?	Yes	75	0.105	$7.91	$-17.66	-69.1%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?	No	46	0.160	$7.43	$-13.99	-65.3%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Yes	50	0.125	$6.31	$-0.25	-3.8%
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	No	6	0.950	$6.05	$0.70	+13.1%
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	41	0.145	$5.98	$-4.33	-42.0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	6	0.845	$5.43	$0.93	+20.7%
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	13	0.335	$4.28	$-0.57	-11.8%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	Yes	78	0.045	$3.50	$-16.72	-82.7%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	No	14	0.195	$2.70	$-5.62	-67.6%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	9	0.278	$2.55	$0.85	+50.3%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	11	0.190	$2.14	$-3.91	-64.6%