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Trader

0x31b2fb490b2050db62ebb6fd16239491b2401f93
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$12
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$1
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-12.9%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
53%
20W / 18L · 24 open
Win Return (30d)
55%
28W / 23L · 11 open
Trades (30d)
62
across 22 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
−$0.99
avg win $3 · loss $6
Profit Factor
0.62
$20 won / $32 lost
Reward / Risk
0.45
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$20
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $279 · all-time $82,276

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 58.8% 100W/70L 55 $486
🏛 Politics 0.0% 0W/15L 4 $38
⚽ Sports 100.0% 1W/0L 2 $14
🎬 Culture 0.0% 0W/10L 2 $16

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

23 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Kristi Noem impeached in 2026? No 11 0.916 $9.82 $0.18 +1.8%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 56 0.151 $8.46 $4.78 +129.8%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? No 8 0.962 $7.32 $1.53 +26.4%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 7 0.935 $6.20 $0.41 +7.1%
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 6 0.984 $6.19 $0.15 +2.5%
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? No 7 0.880 $6.07 $0.28 +4.8%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 7 0.822 $6.02 $3.65 +153.6%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 7 0.865 $5.89 $0.10 +1.8%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 7 0.865 $5.89 $0.10 +1.8%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 6 0.955 $5.61 $0.79 +16.5%
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? No 6 0.855 $5.49 $0.67 +14.0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 5 0.855 $4.35 $0.49 +12.7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 7 0.645 $4.26 $0.40 +10.3%
Trump out as President before 2027? No 5 0.935 $4.23 $0.41 +10.8%
Will Donald Trump visit Hawaii in 2026? No 5 0.790 $4.15 $-0.68 -14.1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 5 0.845 $4.13 $0.27 +7.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 10 0.385 $3.73 $1.99 +113.9%
Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal? Yes 21 0.155 $3.30 $-6.30 -65.6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 3 0.750 $2.07 $0.14 +7.1%
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? Yes 2 0.862 $1.99 $0.06 +2.9%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 26 0.070 $1.82 $-1.94 -51.7%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026? Yes 6 0.260 $1.64 $-3.18 -65.9%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? Yes 4 0.185 $0.69 $-2.92 -80.8%