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Trader leaderboard/truthteller

truthteller

0x30e443872ddf63b2908a49f92cd690c304a55102
Scoped to Economy — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$9,680
Economy · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$3,516
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-3.3%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
28%
141W / 354L · 1,221 open
Win Return (30d)
66%
1,126W / 590L
Trades (30d)
1,716
across 17 markets · ~101 per market
EV / position
−$2,420.12
avg win $1,656 · loss $6,497
Profit Factor
0.25
$3,313 won / $12,993 lost
Reward / Risk
0.25
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$2,244
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $567,565 · all-time $144,472,381

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 21.3% 176W/651L 58 $960,210
💵 Economy 42.7% 56W/75L 16 $207,296
🏛 Politics 44.4% 56W/70L 12 $207,028
₿ Crypto 4 $6,503
🤖 Tech 1 $1,950

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

17 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 155,818 0.090 $14,101.50 $8,943.31 +173.4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 23,000 0.245 $5,635.00 $115.00 +2.1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 12,254 0.165 $2,021.95 $-602.41 -23.0%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? No 995 0.986 $980.97 $-5.43 -0.6%
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? Yes 8,699 0.095 $826.40 $-989.73 -54.5%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 6,995 0.114 $793.89 $88.09 +12.5%
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? Yes 11,235 0.055 $617.91 $-439.71 -41.6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 3,796 0.155 $588.33 $-60.37 -9.3%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Yes 2,924 0.080 $233.89 $-99.67 -29.9%
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Yes 13,789 0.015 $213.72 $-169.28 -44.2%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? Yes 183 0.870 $159.36 $71.44 +81.2%
Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31? No 145 0.964 $140.03 $2.97 +2.2%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 8,843 0.009 $84.01 $-27.15 -24.4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes 795 0.045 $35.79 $-7.70 -17.7%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 9 0.845 $7.31 $3.76 +106.1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 25 0.115 $2.84 $0.37 +15.0%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? Yes 36 0.021 $0.77 $-5.32 -87.4%