PnL (30d)

+$194

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$30

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+3.7%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

43%

36W / 47L · 110 open

Win Return (30d)

45%

87W / 106L

Trades (30d)

193

across 27 markets · ~7 per market

EV / position

+$13.87

avg win $58 · loss $65

Profit Factor

1.60

$520 won / $326 lost

Reward / Risk

0.89

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	40.3% 154W/228L	113	$28,655
🏛 Politics	—	8	$1,151
💵 Economy	100.0% 1W/0L	2	$177

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

20 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	11,866	0.325	$3,856.56	$-270.43	-6.6%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31	No	972	0.815	$792.42	$286.95	+56.8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	2,476	0.165	$408.56	$33.80	+9.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	1,200	0.295	$354.00	$-6.00	-1.7%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	600	0.364	$218.70	$-9.30	-4.1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	300	0.460	$137.85	$24.45	+21.6%
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	380	0.290	$110.20	$-26.00	-19.1%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	591	0.125	$73.90	$-98.70	-57.2%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	571	0.105	$59.99	$-26.81	-30.9%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	1,000	0.036	$36.00	$-4.00	-10.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	1,159	0.028	$31.88	$-2.56	-7.4%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	Yes	154	0.100	$15.38	$-4.62	-23.1%
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	Yes	179	0.070	$12.51	$-5.36	-30.0%
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?	Yes	726	0.017	$12.35	$-23.05	-65.1%
Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?	Yes	200	0.059	$11.70	$-18.30	-61.0%
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	645	0.015	$10.00	$-29.20	-74.5%
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?	Yes	180	0.055	$9.90	$-1.70	-14.7%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?	Yes	894	0.009	$8.49	$-41.51	-83.0%
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	482	0.015	$7.47	$-15.09	-66.9%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China before 2027?	Yes	507	0.004	$1.77	$-3.23	-64.5%