PnL (30d)

−$519

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$30

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-3.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

40%

154W / 228L · 297 open

Win Return (30d)

47%

314W / 354L · 11 open

Trades (30d)

679

across 113 markets · ~6 per market

EV / position

−$7.52

avg win $56 · loss $48

Profit Factor

0.74

$1,507 won / $2,026 lost

Reward / Risk

1.16

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$78

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	40.3% 154W/228L	113	$28,655
🏛 Politics	—	8	$1,201
💵 Economy	100.0% 1W/0L	2	$177

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

20 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	11,866	0.325	$3,856.56	$-270.43	-6.6%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31	No	972	0.835	$811.96	$306.49	+60.6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	2,476	0.165	$408.56	$33.80	+9.0%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	600	0.460	$276.00	$48.00	+21.1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	300	0.460	$137.85	$24.45	+21.6%
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	380	0.295	$112.10	$-24.10	-17.7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	255	0.305	$77.70	$1.27	+1.7%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	571	0.105	$59.99	$-26.81	-30.9%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	391	0.145	$56.73	$-85.87	-60.2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	1,159	0.031	$35.94	$1.50	+4.3%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	1,000	0.033	$33.00	$-7.00	-17.5%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	Yes	154	0.095	$14.62	$-5.38	-26.9%
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?	Yes	726	0.017	$11.98	$-23.41	-66.1%
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	Yes	179	0.060	$10.72	$-7.15	-40.0%
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	645	0.015	$10.00	$-29.20	-74.5%
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?	Yes	180	0.055	$9.90	$-1.70	-14.7%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?	Yes	894	0.010	$8.94	$-41.06	-82.1%
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	482	0.015	$7.47	$-15.09	-66.9%
Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?	Yes	200	0.029	$5.70	$-24.30	-81.0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China before 2027?	Yes	507	0.004	$1.77	$-3.23	-64.5%