PnL (30d)

−$38

Economy · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$6

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-15.7%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

25%

1W / 3L · 3 open

Win Return (30d)

57%

4W / 3L

Trades (30d)

7

across 4 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$12.66

avg win $15 · loss $26

Profit Factor

0.28

$15 won / $52 lost

Reward / Risk

0.55

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	40.3% 154W/228L	113	$28,655
🏛 Politics	—	8	$1,151
💵 Economy	100.0% 1W/0L	2	$177

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

20 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	11,866	0.325	$3,856.56	$-270.43	-6.6%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31	No	972	0.835	$811.96	$306.49	+60.6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	2,476	0.165	$408.56	$33.80	+9.0%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	600	0.470	$282.00	$54.00	+23.7%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	300	0.460	$137.85	$24.45	+21.6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	382	0.305	$116.48	$1.91	+1.7%
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Yes	380	0.290	$110.20	$-26.00	-19.1%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	591	0.145	$85.73	$-86.87	-50.3%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	571	0.105	$59.99	$-26.81	-30.9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	1,159	0.032	$37.10	$2.65	+7.7%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	1,000	0.034	$34.00	$-6.00	-15.0%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	Yes	154	0.100	$15.38	$-4.62	-23.1%
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?	Yes	726	0.017	$11.98	$-23.41	-66.1%
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	Yes	179	0.060	$10.72	$-7.15	-40.0%
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	645	0.015	$10.00	$-29.20	-74.5%
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?	Yes	180	0.055	$9.90	$-1.70	-14.7%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31?	Yes	894	0.009	$8.49	$-41.51	-83.0%
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	Yes	482	0.015	$7.47	$-15.09	-66.9%
Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?	Yes	200	0.029	$5.70	$-24.30	-81.0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China before 2027?	Yes	507	0.004	$1.77	$-3.23	-64.5%