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Trader leaderboard/Dragontree

Dragontree

0x2c3928af89565c352afe8e2a1b25deed77a056dc
Scoped to Culture — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$2,516
Culture · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$0
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-14.6%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
43%
35W / 46L · 2 open
Win Return (30d)
45%
37W / 46L
Trades (30d)
83
across 16 markets · ~5 per market
EV / position
−$167.73
avg win $367 · loss $1,236
Profit Factor
0.59
$3,666 won / $6,182 lost
Reward / Risk
0.30
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $100,924 · all-time $14,356,978

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 36.5% 120W/209L 69 $203,705
🏛 Politics 100.0% 13W/0L 13 $41,379
💵 Economy 100.0% 10W/0L 8 $23,480
🎬 Culture 100.0% 1W/0L 2 $347

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

26 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 15,555 0.835 $12,988.42 $399.98 +3.2%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? No 4,620 0.620 $2,864.15 $753.17 +35.7%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? Yes 2,668 0.999 $2,663.53 $780.80 +41.5%
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? No 2,710 0.900 $2,439.42 $135.52 +5.9%
Israel closes its airspace by August 15? No 2,500 0.940 $2,350.00 $50.00 +2.2%
Will Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year? No 2,135 0.875 $1,867.74 $426.28 +29.6%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? No 2,596 0.519 $1,348.73 $319.70 +31.1%
Will Catherine O'Hara be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year? No 1,071 0.958 $1,026.30 $54.52 +5.6%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 975 0.716 $697.63 $-40.28 -5.5%
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 907 0.665 $603.04 $-131.49 -17.9%
Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? No 242 0.935 $226.26 $9.89 +4.6%
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 343 0.595 $204.08 $-60.12 -22.8%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? No 280 0.305 $85.40 $63.00 +281.2%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? Yes 48 0.825 $39.70 $9.90 +33.2%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? Yes 50 0.625 $31.34 $3.76 +13.6%
Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? Yes 65 0.460 $29.90 $0.15 +0.5%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? No 114 0.215 $24.51 $-30.21 -55.2%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No 20 0.900 $18.00 $1.40 +8.4%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 18 0.545 $9.94 $0.09 +0.9%
Will Casemiro attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? Yes 51 0.175 $8.92 $-22.72 -71.8%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No 17 0.485 $8.05 $0.06 +0.7%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? No 2,755 0.002 $4.13 $-877.61 -99.5%
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 5 0.400 $2.00 $-1.15 -36.5%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? No 6 0.270 $1.68 $-1.86 -52.6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 356 0.002 $0.53 $-0.89 -62.5%