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Trader leaderboard/Dragontree

Dragontree

0x2c3928af89565c352afe8e2a1b25deed77a056dc
PnL (30d)
−$4,104
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$4,705
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-2.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
36%
120W / 209L · 233 open
Win Return (30d)
56%
314W / 248L
Trades (30d)
562
across 69 markets · ~8 per market
EV / position
−$89.22
avg win $509 · loss $1,109
Profit Factor
0.78
$14,755 won / $18,859 lost
Reward / Risk
0.46
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$2,696
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $100,924 · all-time $14,356,978

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 36.5% 120W/209L 69 $203,705
🏛 Politics 100.0% 13W/0L 13 $41,379
💵 Economy 100.0% 10W/0L 8 $23,480
🎬 Culture 100.0% 1W/0L 2 $347

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

26 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 15,555 0.835 $12,988.42 $399.98 +3.2%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? No 4,620 0.590 $2,725.56 $614.58 +29.1%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? Yes 2,668 0.999 $2,663.53 $780.80 +41.5%
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? No 2,710 0.890 $2,412.32 $108.42 +4.7%
Israel closes its airspace by August 15? No 2,500 0.930 $2,325.00 $25.00 +1.1%
Will Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year? No 2,135 0.870 $1,857.07 $415.61 +28.8%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? No 2,596 0.531 $1,378.58 $349.55 +34.0%
Will Catherine O'Hara be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year? No 1,071 0.960 $1,028.44 $56.67 +5.8%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 975 0.715 $696.65 $-41.25 -5.6%
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 907 0.665 $603.04 $-131.49 -17.9%
Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? No 242 0.910 $220.21 $3.84 +1.8%
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 343 0.590 $202.37 $-61.84 -23.4%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? No 280 0.325 $91.00 $68.60 +306.2%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? Yes 48 0.825 $39.70 $9.90 +33.2%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? Yes 50 0.620 $31.09 $3.51 +12.7%
Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? Yes 65 0.460 $29.90 $0.15 +0.5%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? No 114 0.215 $24.51 $-30.21 -55.2%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No 20 0.905 $18.10 $1.50 +9.0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 18 0.535 $9.75 $-0.09 -0.9%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No 17 0.485 $8.05 $0.06 +0.7%
Will Casemiro attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? Yes 51 0.105 $5.35 $-26.29 -83.1%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? No 2,755 0.002 $4.13 $-877.61 -99.5%
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 5 0.400 $2.00 $-1.15 -36.5%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? No 6 0.285 $1.77 $-1.77 -50.0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 356 0.002 $0.53 $-0.89 -62.5%