| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
10 |
0.905 |
$8.70 |
$3.89 |
+81.0% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
5 |
0.973 |
$5.00 |
$0.32 |
+6.9% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? |
No |
6 |
0.875 |
$4.97 |
$0.03 |
+0.6% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? |
Yes |
12 |
0.390 |
$4.75 |
$-0.12 |
-2.5% |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? |
No |
5 |
0.950 |
$4.75 |
$2.35 |
+97.9% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? |
No |
5 |
0.865 |
$4.33 |
$0.97 |
+29.1% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
3 |
0.715 |
$2.12 |
$1.74 |
+450.0% |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 |
Yes |
6 |
0.190 |
$1.21 |
$0.13 |
+11.8% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
5 |
0.125 |
$0.62 |
$-0.42 |
-40.5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
Yes |
22 |
0.028 |
$0.61 |
$-0.50 |
-45.0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
12 |
0.038 |
$0.46 |
$-0.89 |
-66.0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
5 |
0.011 |
$0.05 |
$-0.45 |
-89.5% |