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Trader

0x238fe1b4a91d47bda4fb418dd4a6a09494983015
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$12
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$2
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+1.3%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
70%
748W / 315L · 809 open
Win Return (30d)
65%
1,176W / 625L · 71 open
Trades (30d)
1,872
across 190 markets · ~10 per market
EV / position
+$0.15
avg win $1 · loss $1
Profit Factor
1.35
$47 won / $35 lost
Reward / Risk
1.32
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$6
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $33,109 · all-time $3,463,334

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 67.4% 4,948W/2,393L 920 $9,689
🏛 Politics 48.6% 89W/94L 61 $485
💵 Economy 16.2% 13W/67L 38 $273
₿ Crypto 16.2% 13W/67L 31 $208
🎬 Culture 45.7% 64W/76L 30 $250
⚽ Sports 65.4% 17W/9L 17 $85
🤖 Tech 100.0% 5W/0L 4 $16
🔬 Science 2 $9

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

56 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? Yes 75 0.027 $2.02 $0.15 +8.0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August? Yes 70 0.028 $1.93 $0.04 +1.9%
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? Yes 4 0.405 $1.50 $0.80 +113.1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? Yes 61 0.024 $1.46 $-0.34 -18.7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August? Yes 95 0.015 $1.38 $0.14 +11.5%
Will Dak Prescott win the 2026 NFL MVP? Yes 16 0.079 $1.26 $0.14 +12.1%
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No 4 0.345 $1.25 $0.31 +32.6%
Will the Republican Party win the GA-06 House seat? Yes 34 0.035 $1.19 $0.00 +0.0%
Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 1 0.640 $0.81 $0.54 +204.7%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 5 0.155 $0.77 $-0.37 -32.6%
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by August 31, 2026? Yes 10 0.075 $0.75 $0.05 +7.1%
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? No 4 0.151 $0.65 $0.24 +58.1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 9 0.072 $0.62 $0.02 +3.6%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 5 0.128 $0.60 $0.25 +70.7%
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? Yes 8 0.070 $0.59 $-0.17 -22.2%
Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05? No 32 0.017 $0.54 $-1.31 -70.7%
Rippling IPO before 2027? Yes 4 0.130 $0.52 $-0.28 -35.0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 106 0.004 $0.37 $-0.05 -12.5%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? Yes 65 0.005 $0.36 $-0.14 -28.5%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-04 House seat? Yes 40 0.008 $0.32 $-1.56 -83.0%
Will the Republican Party win the FL-16 House seat? No 1 0.215 $0.30 $-0.02 -6.5%
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Yes 2 0.125 $0.30 $-0.25 -45.6%
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 5 0.053 $0.25 $-0.55 -68.5%
Ukraine coup attempt by December 31? Yes 2 0.095 $0.23 $0.04 +18.7%
Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 14 0.015 $0.22 $-0.28 -55.1%