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0x1fcc97d92bccec98ab57be7f286c94425d77701b
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$54
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$0
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+3.0%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
57%
168W / 128L · 6 open
Win Return (30d)
57%
169W / 129L · 4 open
Trades (30d)
302
across 169 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
+$0.33
avg win $6 · loss $8
Profit Factor
1.10
$608 won / $554 lost
Reward / Risk
0.83
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$16
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $5,026 · all-time $236,921

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 52.2% 1,084W/993L 1125 $21,084
🏛 Politics 63.6% 56W/32L 40 $1,196
🌤 Weather 70.2% 40W/17L 38 $331
🎬 Culture 45.7% 21W/25L 33 $603
💵 Economy 85.0% 34W/6L 14 $326
₿ Crypto 96.2% 25W/1L 8 $103
🤖 Tech 50.0% 1W/1L 2 $28

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

93 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? No 224 0.535 $119.88 $-40.49 -25.2%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? No 118 0.910 $107.67 $17.38 +19.2%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? Yes 99 1.000 $98.63 $24.49 +33.0%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 188 0.440 $82.82 $3.44 +4.3%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 208 0.356 $74.04 $2.83 +4.0%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? Yes 77 0.825 $63.88 $26.16 +69.4%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? Yes 79 0.785 $61.72 $33.73 +120.5%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? Yes 57 0.999 $57.08 $19.05 +50.1%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? Yes 54 0.999 $54.03 $14.05 +35.2%
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? No 59 0.890 $52.20 $12.23 +30.6%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? Yes 53 0.900 $47.56 $17.61 +58.8%
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Yes 67 0.695 $46.32 $-3.67 -7.3%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? Yes 49 0.945 $46.02 $13.37 +40.9%
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 2, 2026? No 40 0.991 $39.60 $19.61 +98.1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 5? Yes 34 1.000 $34.14 $14.15 +70.8%
Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary? Yes 33 0.988 $32.48 $17.03 +110.2%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes 275 0.115 $31.62 $-23.38 -42.5%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 45 0.635 $28.56 $-1.31 -4.4%
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? Yes 31 0.885 $27.66 $7.66 +38.3%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? No 63 0.365 $22.85 $-1.44 -5.9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? No 31 0.710 $21.84 $1.85 +9.2%
Will Dalia Al-Aqidi be the MN-05 Republican nominee? No 76 0.285 $21.60 $1.61 +8.0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? Yes 84 0.255 $21.55 $4.65 +27.5%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on August 6? Yes 61 0.345 $20.89 $0.90 +4.5%
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan? Yes 25 0.810 $20.25 $0.25 +1.2%